[Maple Leaf]

[quote="dabigv13" pid='295517' dateline='1604730990']
I think its a nonsense narrative. He'll more likely than not be the next Democratic nominee. Not many incumbents aren't. He seems in fine shape, better than Mitch has been looking for some time and certainly healthier and sharper than our last POTUS.

I think it's anything but a nonsense narrative.  He will not be the next Democratic nominee.  He's not in fine shape.  

Don't you recall that Reagan was considered too old to be President at the age of 69?  And was essentially out of it mentally at the end of two terms, when he was 77?  Well Biden will be 78 in less than two weeks.  He'll be 82 by the end of his first and only term in the most demanding job in the world.  I sincerely doubt he'll finish the first term and there's a better than even money chance that he doesn't finish the first half of his first term.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him step down by the end of 2021.  And frankly...if he didn't make it to Inauguration Day, I wouldn't be surprised.  At all.

C'mon, man.

---

I think it is equally important to consider how "bogus" these unemployment numbers actually are. Since "discouraged" workers are not included in these figures, people who give up looking just disappear. There are lots more of these people out there than there were 20 years ago. There a even more today than there were a year ago. These numbers also don't include people who retired because they had no reasonable hope of finding a job. These numbers don't include people who are "students" because there are no jobs and they hope by obtaining a new skill they can find employment. "Real" unemployment is much higher than 7%.

You're right, of course.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics defined an unemployed person as satisfying all three of these conditions:

1) Currently has no job, not even part time.
2) Has sought a job at least once in the past four weeks.
3) They are available to work.

So the unemployment rate doesn't include part-time employees.  It doesn't include people who are underemployed.  It doesn't include people who are "discouraged" e.g., those who haven't sought a job in the last four weeks.  It doesn't include the seasonally unemployed.

Technically, the current unemployment rate is 6.9%, up from 3.6% a year ago.  The "U-6" unemployment rate, which includes disaffected and those who are part-time employed but want full-time employment was 6.9% a year ago, and is now 12.1% (down from 18% in June).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

That does not include the civilian labor force participation.  In George Bush's terms, that ranged from 65.2% of adults to 67.2%mostly in the 66% to 67% range.  For Obama, it dropped from 65.8% (last month before Obama's inauguration) to 62.4% in Sept, 2015.  So during Obama's terms, about 5 million people were unemployed that didn't hit the unemployment rate, at its nadir.

Trump gets elected, starts with a 62.8% employment participation rate, and stayed mostly flat, climbing to 63.4% at its peak (as unemployment dropped).  So he added about 1 million jobs that didn't touch the unemployment rates.  That all changed with the pandemic, dropping to a low of 60.2%, currently at 61.7%, meaning many millions of unemployed that don't hit the current unemployment rate because they're not part of the labor force.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-si...n-rate.htm

Or to put it another way: 21,508,662 people last week took a federal government check, quite a feat now that the stimulus has ended.  The comparative figure from a year ago was 1,444,923, a sixteenfold increase.

Peak labor force was 160 million people in USA, right before the pandemic hit.  21.5 million of those get a govt check.  That, to me, says the actual unemployment rate is 13.44%  or thereabouts.



Add to the level of unemployment and the number of business that have and will go under, starting in 2021 we will starting seeing personal income tax increases which was part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act.  2021 will be a tough year for any President.

[Maple Leaf]

[quote="dabigv13" pid='295517' dateline='1604730990']
I think its a nonsense narrative. He'll more likely than not be the next Democratic nominee. Not many incumbents aren't. He seems in fine shape, better than Mitch has been looking for some time and certainly healthier and sharper than our last POTUS.

I think it's anything but a nonsense narrative.  He will not be the next Democratic nominee.  He's not in fine shape.  

Don't you recall that Reagan was considered too old to be President at the age of 69?  And was essentially out of it mentally at the end of two terms, when he was 77?  Well Biden will be 78 in less than two weeks.  He'll be 82 by the end of his first and only term in the most demanding job in the world.  I sincerely doubt he'll finish the first term and there's a better than even money chance that he doesn't finish the first half of his first term.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him step down by the end of 2021.  And frankly...if he didn't make it to Inauguration Day, I wouldn't be surprised.  At all.

C'mon, man.

---

I think it is equally important to consider how "bogus" these unemployment numbers actually are. Since "discouraged" workers are not included in these figures, people who give up looking just disappear. There are lots more of these people out there than there were 20 years ago. There a even more today than there were a year ago. These numbers also don't include people who retired because they had no reasonable hope of finding a job. These numbers don't include people who are "students" because there are no jobs and they hope by obtaining a new skill they can find employment. "Real" unemployment is much higher than 7%.

You're right, of course.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics defined an unemployed person as satisfying all three of these conditions:

1) Currently has no job, not even part time.
2) Has sought a job at least once in the past four weeks.
3) They are available to work.

So the unemployment rate doesn't include part-time employees.  It doesn't include people who are underemployed.  It doesn't include people who are "discouraged" e.g., those who haven't sought a job in the last four weeks.  It doesn't include the seasonally unemployed.

Technically, the current unemployment rate is 6.9%, up from 3.6% a year ago.  The "U-6" unemployment rate, which includes disaffected and those who are part-time employed but want full-time employment was 6.9% a year ago, and is now 12.1% (down from 18% in June).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

That does not include the civilian labor force participation.  In George Bush's terms, that ranged from 65.2% of adults to 67.2%mostly in the 66% to 67% range.  For Obama, it dropped from 65.8% (last month before Obama's inauguration) to 62.4% in Sept, 2015.  So during Obama's terms, about 5 million people were unemployed that didn't hit the unemployment rate, at its nadir.

Trump gets elected, starts with a 62.8% employment participation rate, and stayed mostly flat, climbing to 63.4% at its peak (as unemployment dropped).  So he added about 1 million jobs that didn't touch the unemployment rates.  That all changed with the pandemic, dropping to a low of 60.2%, currently at 61.7%, meaning many millions of unemployed that don't hit the current unemployment rate because they're not part of the labor force.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-si...n-rate.htm

Or to put it another way: 21,508,662 people last week took a federal government check, quite a feat now that the stimulus has ended.  The comparative figure from a year ago was 1,444,923, a sixteenfold increase.

Peak labor force was 160 million people in USA, right before the pandemic hit.  21.5 million of those get a govt check.  That, to me, says the actual unemployment rate is 13.44%  or thereabouts.



Add to the level of unemployment and the number of business that have and will go under, starting in 2021 we will starting seeing personal income tax increases which was part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act.  2021 will be a tough year for any President.