[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437357797130241?s=20[/tweet]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437357797130241?s=20[/tweet]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!