[BostonCard]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

Agreed.  If you look at the COVID-19 cases, there doesn't appear to be a discernable change in the first week of November, when cases contracted during Halloween would be expected to appear.  It seems likely that Halloween festivities, muted as they may have been this year, probably did lead to some transmissions, but to my eye, it is probably not discernable from the transmissions that were occurring already.

Also, focusing on individual events (Halloween, Thanksgiving) might be interpreted by some people as "it's ok to have a gathering as long as it isn't a really big Thankgiving feast".

BC

[BostonCard]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

Agreed.  If you look at the COVID-19 cases, there doesn't appear to be a discernable change in the first week of November, when cases contracted during Halloween would be expected to appear.  It seems likely that Halloween festivities, muted as they may have been this year, probably did lead to some transmissions, but to my eye, it is probably not discernable from the transmissions that were occurring already.

Also, focusing on individual events (Halloween, Thanksgiving) might be interpreted by some people as "it's ok to have a gathering as long as it isn't a really big Thankgiving feast".

BC