[petersalas]

Yes, I’m assuming the games will be played and do not want to think otherwise.. Player and coaches safety is number 1, but I feel optimistic that they can be played with testing and all teams being strict the way Stanford has been with keeping everyone on the team safe.. 

Not that any game should be taken lightly and with COVID still affecting life... this set up to break the record could not be set up more perfectly... needs 5 wins to and the the first 5 games are at home...

You're assuming that the games will be allowed to be played.  With the COVID levels as high as they are and the Rt > 1.4, I wouldn't be surprised if most of us agree that they may need to be rescheduled to after the winter outbreak.

Santa Clara County:  Daily new cases/100K:  11.9     R:  1.46  Estimated new cases/100K on 12/11:  47.4
Connecticut:         Daily new cases/100K:  48.8     R:  1.53  Estimated new cases/100K on 12/22: 484.3

I used game 5 for Stanford (if all wins, Tara passes Pat)
and game 7 for UConn (if all wins, Geno ties Pat.  Game 8 is Jan. 7)

I took the current Rt.  I used a period of 6.3 days for each generation (serial interval, from the paper of the group estimating Rt).  The 23 days from now to 12/11 represents 3.65 generations.
1.46 to the 3.65th power = 3.98.   The current daily new case rate, at this growth rate, would be 3.98 times higher in 23 days.

UConn's 7th game is 34 days out, or 5.4 generations. or a factor of 9.93x the current daily new case rate (48.8).

I don't claim that these are true predictions.  They are based on current growth rate. Things WILL change, most likely with governmental actions (shutting things down) and people staying isolated.  The COVID death rate will shoot up by then from the late October rise in cases.

I would believe that the basketball season doesn't go even 4 games for Stanford.  I surely expect it won't go 7 games for UConn.

[petersalas]

Yes, I’m assuming the games will be played and do not want to think otherwise.. Player and coaches safety is number 1, but I feel optimistic that they can be played with testing and all teams being strict the way Stanford has been with keeping everyone on the team safe.. 

Not that any game should be taken lightly and with COVID still affecting life... this set up to break the record could not be set up more perfectly... needs 5 wins to and the the first 5 games are at home...

You're assuming that the games will be allowed to be played.  With the COVID levels as high as they are and the Rt > 1.4, I wouldn't be surprised if most of us agree that they may need to be rescheduled to after the winter outbreak.

Santa Clara County:  Daily new cases/100K:  11.9     R:  1.46  Estimated new cases/100K on 12/11:  47.4
Connecticut:         Daily new cases/100K:  48.8     R:  1.53  Estimated new cases/100K on 12/22: 484.3

I used game 5 for Stanford (if all wins, Tara passes Pat)
and game 7 for UConn (if all wins, Geno ties Pat.  Game 8 is Jan. 7)

I took the current Rt.  I used a period of 6.3 days for each generation (serial interval, from the paper of the group estimating Rt).  The 23 days from now to 12/11 represents 3.65 generations.
1.46 to the 3.65th power = 3.98.   The current daily new case rate, at this growth rate, would be 3.98 times higher in 23 days.

UConn's 7th game is 34 days out, or 5.4 generations. or a factor of 9.93x the current daily new case rate (48.8).

I don't claim that these are true predictions.  They are based on current growth rate. Things WILL change, most likely with governmental actions (shutting things down) and people staying isolated.  The COVID death rate will shoot up by then from the late October rise in cases.

I would believe that the basketball season doesn't go even 4 games for Stanford.  I surely expect it won't go 7 games for UConn.