[M T]

 I realize it is the duty of this board to be as pessimistic and ghoulish as possible.

I'm sorry you feel that way.  Maybe you should stop reading it.

I think of this board as trying to be as honest and open about the situation.   We may differ strongly on our viewpoints, but I've rarely seen what I thought was manipulative behavior.

This is the death rate timeline in the UK in 1918.  If the COVID pandemic is following a similar pattern, and we're on the upslope of the big wave, I'd have to say it sure looks like we might anticipate about 2x-4x the number of deaths we've already had.  I hope we don't follow that same pattern.   Of course, modern medicine is a lot better now.  (which I expect they were saying in 1918, and will say again in 2118).



P.S., I just checked the CDC site.  In the US, the current COVID death rate is measured as 0.4 per 100K over the last week (that's per day).  I believe that would then be 0.0028 (weekly deaths per 10K) on this chart.

[M T]

 I realize it is the duty of this board to be as pessimistic and ghoulish as possible.

I'm sorry you feel that way.  Maybe you should stop reading it.

I think of this board as trying to be as honest and open about the situation.   We may differ strongly on our viewpoints, but I've rarely seen what I thought was manipulative behavior.

This is the death rate timeline in the UK in 1918.  If the COVID pandemic is following a similar pattern, and we're on the upslope of the big wave, I'd have to say it sure looks like we might anticipate about 2x-4x the number of deaths we've already had.  I hope we don't follow that same pattern.   Of course, modern medicine is a lot better now.  (which I expect they were saying in 1918, and will say again in 2118).



P.S., I just checked the CDC site.  In the US, the current COVID death rate is measured as 0.4 per 100K over the last week (that's per day).  I believe that would then be 0.0028 (weekly deaths per 10K) on this chart.