[M T]

SCC is on track to exceed hospital capacity in 3 weeks.

I don't see that when I look at the stats.  I'm wondering who would be claiming that and why.
Apparently Dr. Cody said this.


(ICU available beds dropped from 53 to 48% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 23 COVD-related patients, with 230 empty beds;    Non-ICU available beds dropped from 33 to 30% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 60 COVID-related patients, with 600 empty beds.)
I do expect more patients, faster, unless we get R down (and it may be starting to edge downward), but I suspect elective procedures are still happening.

The report of Dr. Cody's comments described an increase from 110 last week to 166 this week. Even if we take a 50% increase for each of the next 3 weeks (certainly believable to me, but higher than our Rt) and the hospitals maintain the same number of other patients, the total number of COVID patients in 3 weeks would be 560, about half of the other patients. That increase of 400 COVID patients would bring the number of available hospital beds (at current levels) to 432. By the 4th week of 50% increase per week, things would be getting tight, if the number of other patients didn't decrease.

Update on Saturday 11/21 (of cases reported to health dept. on Friday, by announcement day):
403 new cases Sat., (2498 announced Sun-Sat. Up 32% over week ago), 401 Friday, 345 Thurs, 281 Wed, 345 Tues, 388 Mon, 335 Sun,
330 Sat (1890 announced Sun-Sat), 362 Fri, 185 Thu, 159 Wed, 232 Tues, 264 Mon, 358 Sun
All beds in SCC: 9 additional COVID-positive beds and 3 additional COVID-PUI beds in use today; 31 fewer other patients. Net of 59 additional available beds. Right around 33% available beds overall.
In ICU: 1 additional COVID-PUI bed in use. Right around 48% available beds in ICU.

[M T]

SCC is on track to exceed hospital capacity in 3 weeks.

I don't see that when I look at the stats.  I'm wondering who would be claiming that and why.
Apparently Dr. Cody said this.


(ICU available beds dropped from 53 to 48% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 23 COVD-related patients, with 230 empty beds;    Non-ICU available beds dropped from 33 to 30% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 60 COVID-related patients, with 600 empty beds.)
I do expect more patients, faster, unless we get R down (and it may be starting to edge downward), but I suspect elective procedures are still happening.

The report of Dr. Cody's comments described an increase from 110 last week to 166 this week. Even if we take a 50% increase for each of the next 3 weeks (certainly believable to me, but higher than our Rt) and the hospitals maintain the same number of other patients, the total number of COVID patients in 3 weeks would be 560, about half of the other patients. That increase of 400 COVID patients would bring the number of available hospital beds (at current levels) to 432. By the 4th week of 50% increase per week, things would be getting tight, if the number of other patients didn't decrease.

Update on Saturday 11/21 (of cases reported to health dept. on Friday, by announcement day):
403 new cases Sat., (2498 announced Sun-Sat. Up 32% over week ago), 401 Friday, 345 Thurs, 281 Wed, 345 Tues, 388 Mon, 335 Sun,
330 Sat (1890 announced Sun-Sat), 362 Fri, 185 Thu, 159 Wed, 232 Tues, 264 Mon, 358 Sun
All beds in SCC: 9 additional COVID-positive beds and 3 additional COVID-PUI beds in use today; 31 fewer other patients. Net of 59 additional available beds. Right around 33% available beds overall.
In ICU: 1 additional COVID-PUI bed in use. Right around 48% available beds in ICU.