[lex24]

 I realize it is the duty of this board to be as pessimistic and ghoulish as possible.

I'm sorry you feel that way.  Maybe you should stop reading it.

I think of this board as trying to be as honest and open about the situation.   We may differ strongly on our viewpoints, but I've rarely seen what I thought was manipulative behavior.

This is the death rate timeline in the UK in 1918.  If the COVID pandemic is following a similar pattern, and we're on the upslope of the big wave, I'd have to say it sure looks like we might anticipate about 2x-4x the number of deaths we've already had.  I hope we don't follow that same pattern.   Of course, modern medicine is a lot better now.  (which I expect they were saying in 1918, and will say again in 2118).



P.S., I just checked the CDC site.  In the US, the current COVID death rate is measured as 0.4 per 100K over the last week (that's per day).  I believe that would then be 0.0028 (weekly deaths per 10K) on this chart.

There is good information on this board at times. There is also a ton of doom and gloom. And a propensity to rip anyone that does not fall in line with the doom and gloom. That’s my perspective. Right or wrong.

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There are a lot of positives.

Care has improved drastically since 1918.  Mortality would be a lot worse if we were limited to 1918 healthcare.  Hell, care for COVID-19 has improved dramatically since March 2020. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-0...39901770=1

As you note, there is a strong age and comorbidity gradient with mortality.  All deaths are tragic, so you don't want to make light of the fact, but the reaction would rightly be much different if mortality were highest amongst children, or even, as in 1918, among young adults.

Signs are pointing towards us being able to deploy a vaccine to the most vulnerable by the end of the year, and to the broader population starting next spring.  Cases and deaths will decline quickly as the population, especially the most at risk, get a vaccine. 

But we should not minimize the disease either.  COVID-19 would probably infect 1/3 or more of the world population by the time its through were it not for the imminent arrival of vaccine.  At that point we'd be talking about 500,000 to 1 million deaths in the US alone and maybe 12 million deaths worldwide.  That's less as a percentage of the population than the 1918 flu pandemic, but certainly enough to qualify as the worst pandemic since the 1918 flu pandemic.

To put things into perspective, at the peak of polio in 1952, there were 57,628 reported cases and 3,145 deaths.  This is much worse than polio.

BC

Balanced post. Thanks.  I don’t for a second minimize how bad this thing is. I just don’t agree with all of the steps taken and I’m not afraid to say so.

[lex24]

 I realize it is the duty of this board to be as pessimistic and ghoulish as possible.

I'm sorry you feel that way.  Maybe you should stop reading it.

I think of this board as trying to be as honest and open about the situation.   We may differ strongly on our viewpoints, but I've rarely seen what I thought was manipulative behavior.

This is the death rate timeline in the UK in 1918.  If the COVID pandemic is following a similar pattern, and we're on the upslope of the big wave, I'd have to say it sure looks like we might anticipate about 2x-4x the number of deaths we've already had.  I hope we don't follow that same pattern.   Of course, modern medicine is a lot better now.  (which I expect they were saying in 1918, and will say again in 2118).



P.S., I just checked the CDC site.  In the US, the current COVID death rate is measured as 0.4 per 100K over the last week (that's per day).  I believe that would then be 0.0028 (weekly deaths per 10K) on this chart.

There is good information on this board at times. There is also a ton of doom and gloom. And a propensity to rip anyone that does not fall in line with the doom and gloom. That’s my perspective. Right or wrong.

---

There are a lot of positives.

Care has improved drastically since 1918.  Mortality would be a lot worse if we were limited to 1918 healthcare.  Hell, care for COVID-19 has improved dramatically since March 2020. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-0...39901770=1

As you note, there is a strong age and comorbidity gradient with mortality.  All deaths are tragic, so you don't want to make light of the fact, but the reaction would rightly be much different if mortality were highest amongst children, or even, as in 1918, among young adults.

Signs are pointing towards us being able to deploy a vaccine to the most vulnerable by the end of the year, and to the broader population starting next spring.  Cases and deaths will decline quickly as the population, especially the most at risk, get a vaccine. 

But we should not minimize the disease either.  COVID-19 would probably infect 1/3 or more of the world population by the time its through were it not for the imminent arrival of vaccine.  At that point we'd be talking about 500,000 to 1 million deaths in the US alone and maybe 12 million deaths worldwide.  That's less as a percentage of the population than the 1918 flu pandemic, but certainly enough to qualify as the worst pandemic since the 1918 flu pandemic.

To put things into perspective, at the peak of polio in 1952, there were 57,628 reported cases and 3,145 deaths.  This is much worse than polio.

BC

Balanced post. Thanks.  I don’t for a second minimize how bad this thing is. I just don’t agree with all of the steps taken and I’m not afraid to say so.