11-20-2020, 08:31 PM
Three things.
1) it is very clear now that people take cues about the risk from the level of restrictions that come from officials. Opening up bars and restaurants in the summer didn't just affect bars and restaurants; it affected people's perceptions on the risk of COVID-19, and along with those announcements came a general relaxation of social distancing.
2) I have taken to walking in the evenings after dinner. Without fail, especially on the week ends, I go by houses that are hosting parties. The evidence is that many of the transmissions going on right now are happening in gatherings in people's homes. Now, a 10 to 6 curfew doesn't mean that people won't make it a brunch or dinner party instead of an after dinner party. It reduces the likelihood of people drinking and making poor choices because of alcohol. So, hopefully it will make a difference. If not, the next step is to ban private get togethers outside of the household.
There is only one number that matters, whether R(t) is above or below 1. Even if you think the current level of infections, hospitalizations, or deaths is acceptable currently, if Rt is above 1, it will eventually exceed an acceptable level. So you might as well take steps to drive that number down now, while you can, then be looking at an Rt greater than one and an unacceptable number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, because that is when the county and state will be forced to impose more draconian measures, because it will have to arrest the spread as quickly as possible.
The good news is we have time. WE can take steps to bring R(t) to less than one, at which point infections will peak and start to decline, more patients will be discharged from the hospital than will be coming in with COVID-19, and deaths will, with some delay, start to come down. If we can bring R(t) < 1 gently, then we can can salvage some semblance of a winter. But if we don't, we will eventually reach a level of infections that will cause panic and force the authorities to impose more draconian restrictions.
BC
1) it is very clear now that people take cues about the risk from the level of restrictions that come from officials. Opening up bars and restaurants in the summer didn't just affect bars and restaurants; it affected people's perceptions on the risk of COVID-19, and along with those announcements came a general relaxation of social distancing.
2) I have taken to walking in the evenings after dinner. Without fail, especially on the week ends, I go by houses that are hosting parties. The evidence is that many of the transmissions going on right now are happening in gatherings in people's homes. Now, a 10 to 6 curfew doesn't mean that people won't make it a brunch or dinner party instead of an after dinner party. It reduces the likelihood of people drinking and making poor choices because of alcohol. So, hopefully it will make a difference. If not, the next step is to ban private get togethers outside of the household.
There is only one number that matters, whether R(t) is above or below 1. Even if you think the current level of infections, hospitalizations, or deaths is acceptable currently, if Rt is above 1, it will eventually exceed an acceptable level. So you might as well take steps to drive that number down now, while you can, then be looking at an Rt greater than one and an unacceptable number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, because that is when the county and state will be forced to impose more draconian measures, because it will have to arrest the spread as quickly as possible.
The good news is we have time. WE can take steps to bring R(t) to less than one, at which point infections will peak and start to decline, more patients will be discharged from the hospital than will be coming in with COVID-19, and deaths will, with some delay, start to come down. If we can bring R(t) < 1 gently, then we can can salvage some semblance of a winter. But if we don't, we will eventually reach a level of infections that will cause panic and force the authorities to impose more draconian restrictions.
BC