[oregontim]

How much of this is hindsight bias? From Wikipedia:

The common tendency for people perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were ... People often believe, after an event has occurred, that they would have predicted, or perhaps even would have known this a high degree of certainty, what the outcome of an event would have been, before the event occurred.

Have you noticed how, after the fact, we dig down and discover the signs that we supposedly missed? A lot of that IMO is human nature uncomfortable with true random. Uncertainty is so troubling that we soften it with signs that we missed. So we could have predicted it. 

Remember last March? The most prevalent model had us shutting down hard and new cases disappearing, for good, in the summer. 

I think the significant failure of leadership began with the speech to the nation on March 12, and from then on continued to diverge from common sense and expert recommendations, both. And that at least 150K lives were lost because of the mismanagement. 

I suppose we couldn’t have been Taiwan, or New Zealand. But we could have been a much better USA, with maybe 60K or so dead by now, not 250K.

Which I hope bodes well for the future. Maybe we can reach unified messaging now?

[oregontim]

How much of this is hindsight bias? From Wikipedia:

The common tendency for people perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were ... People often believe, after an event has occurred, that they would have predicted, or perhaps even would have known this a high degree of certainty, what the outcome of an event would have been, before the event occurred.

Have you noticed how, after the fact, we dig down and discover the signs that we supposedly missed? A lot of that IMO is human nature uncomfortable with true random. Uncertainty is so troubling that we soften it with signs that we missed. So we could have predicted it. 

Remember last March? The most prevalent model had us shutting down hard and new cases disappearing, for good, in the summer. 

I think the significant failure of leadership began with the speech to the nation on March 12, and from then on continued to diverge from common sense and expert recommendations, both. And that at least 150K lives were lost because of the mismanagement. 

I suppose we couldn’t have been Taiwan, or New Zealand. But we could have been a much better USA, with maybe 60K or so dead by now, not 250K.

Which I hope bodes well for the future. Maybe we can reach unified messaging now?