[chrisk]

This is what I suspect:

1.  That the virus was loose in the US prior to the generally accepted arrival date of late January/early February 2020.  Don't know if we'll ever know for sure on that, but it would be interesting to find out.  [This belief informed by that one study potentially showing 2019 presence in Italy, as well as anecdotes from friends who reported folks having "the worst flu of their lives" in late 2019].



Lastly, the US has a LOT of work to do at all levels of government to be in better position to respond to the next pandemic when (not if) it happens.  Goose has generally covered the terrain very well, so I'll just say +1 to his commentary.

Those anecdotes have proven to be likely just that - anecdotes. When California researchers went back and checked antibodies to Covid (IgG) in people who had those symptoms in late December and in January, and had not been sick after that, none of them had had Covid. That testing was done as soon as the antibody test was available in April. There is still no evidence that Covid came to the USA prior to the new year.

Could very well be - like I said, just a suspicion.

BTW, also agree with OF on the failure to use tracking capabilities of phones as being a big demerit on dealing with virus.

How many Americans would comply with the use of their phones in this way? About the same as mask-wearing compliance in March / April?

---

It probably would have meant consolidating international travelers into a handful of locations (maybe NY, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Chicago, and LA) and closing to international flights outside of the dedicated ports of entry.  That is not a trivial task, and would have required massively reducing the number of flights and travelers to cope (of course, the volume of travelers would have reduced dramatically anyways had people known they would have to quarantine for 14 days).

BC

The regulatory machinery of our nation actually is wonderfully efficient, in terms of ordinary organizational efficiency. It's only when you compare it to some mythical Utopia that it looks bad. Comparisons to seeking a perpetual motion machine are apt. Entropy is a fact in organizations as well as physics.

It was impossible to come up with a satisfactory regulatory scheme in a period no longer than six weeks and, by some reckonings, as short as ten days.

That said, maybe we could be doing a little better after nine months. Going back to the same draconian lock down does not speak well for the flexibility of our regulators. I'm thinking particularly of school closings, in which we are paying a much bigger price than we need to.

The US was very active in quarantining the passengers on the Grand Princess. It even took over a hotel in San Carlos as well as government facilities. It made minimal attempt to quarantine people coming in by air. If it had made a coordinated effort it could have bought more time. But then the big issue, the US has not been effective in using the last 10 months to scale up testing and quarantine activities to an effective level.

By getting on top of the problem early (in January), Taiwan was able to reopen schools in February before the US even considered closing its schools. For a country that supposedly has good intelligence capabilities with competitors/enemies, the US really squandered the headstart it could have taken because of its great relationship with one of its greatest allies, Taiwan.

[chrisk]

This is what I suspect:

1.  That the virus was loose in the US prior to the generally accepted arrival date of late January/early February 2020.  Don't know if we'll ever know for sure on that, but it would be interesting to find out.  [This belief informed by that one study potentially showing 2019 presence in Italy, as well as anecdotes from friends who reported folks having "the worst flu of their lives" in late 2019].



Lastly, the US has a LOT of work to do at all levels of government to be in better position to respond to the next pandemic when (not if) it happens.  Goose has generally covered the terrain very well, so I'll just say +1 to his commentary.

Those anecdotes have proven to be likely just that - anecdotes. When California researchers went back and checked antibodies to Covid (IgG) in people who had those symptoms in late December and in January, and had not been sick after that, none of them had had Covid. That testing was done as soon as the antibody test was available in April. There is still no evidence that Covid came to the USA prior to the new year.

Could very well be - like I said, just a suspicion.

BTW, also agree with OF on the failure to use tracking capabilities of phones as being a big demerit on dealing with virus.

How many Americans would comply with the use of their phones in this way? About the same as mask-wearing compliance in March / April?

---

It probably would have meant consolidating international travelers into a handful of locations (maybe NY, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Chicago, and LA) and closing to international flights outside of the dedicated ports of entry.  That is not a trivial task, and would have required massively reducing the number of flights and travelers to cope (of course, the volume of travelers would have reduced dramatically anyways had people known they would have to quarantine for 14 days).

BC

The regulatory machinery of our nation actually is wonderfully efficient, in terms of ordinary organizational efficiency. It's only when you compare it to some mythical Utopia that it looks bad. Comparisons to seeking a perpetual motion machine are apt. Entropy is a fact in organizations as well as physics.

It was impossible to come up with a satisfactory regulatory scheme in a period no longer than six weeks and, by some reckonings, as short as ten days.

That said, maybe we could be doing a little better after nine months. Going back to the same draconian lock down does not speak well for the flexibility of our regulators. I'm thinking particularly of school closings, in which we are paying a much bigger price than we need to.

The US was very active in quarantining the passengers on the Grand Princess. It even took over a hotel in San Carlos as well as government facilities. It made minimal attempt to quarantine people coming in by air. If it had made a coordinated effort it could have bought more time. But then the big issue, the US has not been effective in using the last 10 months to scale up testing and quarantine activities to an effective level.

By getting on top of the problem early (in January), Taiwan was able to reopen schools in February before the US even considered closing its schools. For a country that supposedly has good intelligence capabilities with competitors/enemies, the US really squandered the headstart it could have taken because of its great relationship with one of its greatest allies, Taiwan.