[teejers1]

I know someone here said 14 days is the potential transmission period after exposure, but this doctor did not agree with that.  

I am almost positive that the 14 day period is the maximum incubation period that is expected for COVID-19. It could take that long after exposure for you to develop enough viral load to transmit the disease and to test positive. I am also almost positive this limit has been observed in real life. In fact, a few incubation periods around 20 days have been reported.

It is a probability function. Probably most people who are exposed and are actually going to get the disease will test positive by day 7, but not all. How much is "most" vs "all"? I don't know. If it is 99% of the population then ending the quarantine at 7 days and a negative test makes sense. If it is 80% then it probably does not. By now, these numbers should be known. Show us the graph of the cumulative density function and then we can have an intelligent discussion about this topic. Otherwise, it is all BS.

I just hope they aren't reducing the number knowing it is not a good idea but hoping that people will comply with 7 because they haven't and won't with 14.

So I did a little more Googling and found this from UCSF.  It's a travel guide that mentions the 7 days with a test.  Perhaps that is what was being discussed when I caught the interview.  It still looks like Option A is 7 days and then if you feel good and test negative on Day 7 you can return to work; Option B is 14 days quarantine, if you feel good you can return to work (w/o a test).  Is either an option only if you don't think you've been exposed; and 14 days is required if you've been exposed? 

Maybe. But I'm still not sure why you'd have a 7-day option for travel return if you're worried about unknown exposures, from asymptomatic carriers or otherwise.

https://coronavirus.ucsf.edu/travel

Maybe I'm misinterpreting things . . . certainly possible.

[teejers1]

I know someone here said 14 days is the potential transmission period after exposure, but this doctor did not agree with that.  

I am almost positive that the 14 day period is the maximum incubation period that is expected for COVID-19. It could take that long after exposure for you to develop enough viral load to transmit the disease and to test positive. I am also almost positive this limit has been observed in real life. In fact, a few incubation periods around 20 days have been reported.

It is a probability function. Probably most people who are exposed and are actually going to get the disease will test positive by day 7, but not all. How much is "most" vs "all"? I don't know. If it is 99% of the population then ending the quarantine at 7 days and a negative test makes sense. If it is 80% then it probably does not. By now, these numbers should be known. Show us the graph of the cumulative density function and then we can have an intelligent discussion about this topic. Otherwise, it is all BS.

I just hope they aren't reducing the number knowing it is not a good idea but hoping that people will comply with 7 because they haven't and won't with 14.

So I did a little more Googling and found this from UCSF.  It's a travel guide that mentions the 7 days with a test.  Perhaps that is what was being discussed when I caught the interview.  It still looks like Option A is 7 days and then if you feel good and test negative on Day 7 you can return to work; Option B is 14 days quarantine, if you feel good you can return to work (w/o a test).  Is either an option only if you don't think you've been exposed; and 14 days is required if you've been exposed? 

Maybe. But I'm still not sure why you'd have a 7-day option for travel return if you're worried about unknown exposures, from asymptomatic carriers or otherwise.

https://coronavirus.ucsf.edu/travel

Maybe I'm misinterpreting things . . . certainly possible.