[Goose]

Nobody gamed out that POTUS would be actively undermining the effort.  You could run a billion simulations and never consider that possibility.  Nobody gamed out that POTUS would actively champion HCQ+AZM as a cure so COVID-19 was no big deal.  All of this nit picking about how scientists failed and not considering the order of magnitude worse problem caused by the White House is frankly incredibly flawed analysis.

Not surprisingly, I will argue that you analysis is the one that is flawed. While it is certainly true the POTUS has been a catastrophe in terms of a messenger for a rational approach to the outbreak, the idea that his response determines the narrative is flawed. If the scientific community (possibly as constituted in the department of HHS) had clearly spoken out, backing up their statements with data or at least a plausibility argument, I doubt may people would be listening to the man who recommended drinking bleach. That didn't happen. Instead the CDC issued contaminated test kits and it was all downhill from there credibility wise. Trump didn't cause that. Furthermore, the state level was unaffected by Trump's incompetence. They could say and do what they wished. Yet, as I pointed out, we still don't know why tracking and tracing failed, and we still don't know why the color tier is what it is. We do know (after some serious pushback forced the disclosure) that in fact the LA County Health Department has no data justifying stopping sales of liquor at 530 PM. Trump didn't cause that either.

IMHO, the concept that Trump was the problem and if not for him things would be fine is dangerously false. Tony Fauci himself has repeatedly pointed out that the lack of investment and reduced budgets at the State and County level is a primary cause for our failed response. The number of staff people at the County level has fallen steadily for many years. Note that despite Trumps attempt to reduce the CDC budget, Congress has always kept in constant in dollar value. Any reduction has been due to inflation and the transfer of some responsibilities to other departments (eg. national stockpile to Homeland Security). The CDC also got a brand new 700,000.000+ lab in 2017. That said, as far back as 2008 the CDC was publishing papers outlining their inability to provide adequate testing to the country in the event of an epidemic. Trump wasn't elected until 2016. So yes, Trump was a problem, but demonstrably he wasn't THE problem.

[Goose]

Nobody gamed out that POTUS would be actively undermining the effort.  You could run a billion simulations and never consider that possibility.  Nobody gamed out that POTUS would actively champion HCQ+AZM as a cure so COVID-19 was no big deal.  All of this nit picking about how scientists failed and not considering the order of magnitude worse problem caused by the White House is frankly incredibly flawed analysis.

Not surprisingly, I will argue that you analysis is the one that is flawed. While it is certainly true the POTUS has been a catastrophe in terms of a messenger for a rational approach to the outbreak, the idea that his response determines the narrative is flawed. If the scientific community (possibly as constituted in the department of HHS) had clearly spoken out, backing up their statements with data or at least a plausibility argument, I doubt may people would be listening to the man who recommended drinking bleach. That didn't happen. Instead the CDC issued contaminated test kits and it was all downhill from there credibility wise. Trump didn't cause that. Furthermore, the state level was unaffected by Trump's incompetence. They could say and do what they wished. Yet, as I pointed out, we still don't know why tracking and tracing failed, and we still don't know why the color tier is what it is. We do know (after some serious pushback forced the disclosure) that in fact the LA County Health Department has no data justifying stopping sales of liquor at 530 PM. Trump didn't cause that either.

IMHO, the concept that Trump was the problem and if not for him things would be fine is dangerously false. Tony Fauci himself has repeatedly pointed out that the lack of investment and reduced budgets at the State and County level is a primary cause for our failed response. The number of staff people at the County level has fallen steadily for many years. Note that despite Trumps attempt to reduce the CDC budget, Congress has always kept in constant in dollar value. Any reduction has been due to inflation and the transfer of some responsibilities to other departments (eg. national stockpile to Homeland Security). The CDC also got a brand new 700,000.000+ lab in 2017. That said, as far back as 2008 the CDC was publishing papers outlining their inability to provide adequate testing to the country in the event of an epidemic. Trump wasn't elected until 2016. So yes, Trump was a problem, but demonstrably he wasn't THE problem.