03-31-2012, 10:49 PM
I thought Baptists don't go to dances...
Baylor's player's average playing time & height for players with > 10min/gm
Griner 32.4 6'8"
Sims 31.8 5'9"
Hayden 26.0Â 6'0"
Williams 25.6Â 6'1"
Madden 25.1Â 6'0"
Condrey 19.1Â 5'7"
Pope 14.8Â 6'1"
So there's no one on their team with much playing time that is taller than 6'1".
Stanford has
Nneka 30.3 6'2"
Toni 30.0Â 5'11"
Chiney 28.5Â 6'3"
Jos 23.9Â 6'3"
Lindy 22.5Â 5'8"
Amber 19.3Â 5'7"
Taylor 17.5Â 6'3"
Bonnie 10.8Â 6'3"
Sarah 10.4Â 6'5"
So Baylor will likely have the height advantage on one or two players, and Stanford will have advantage on 3 or 4.
Sims is their shooter; Williams is their rebounder (more rebounds/minute than Griner). I'd guess that Chiney will guard Williams. On defense, I might put Jos (more experienced at blocking out, less critical if she gets early fouls) on Brittney.
On offense, I'd put one O sister on each block. Nneka's fade away shots might be useful if Griner is on her, but Griner may be on Chiney.
I might disagree about the early 3s in particular cases. If Brittney is slow down the court to the defensive end, we should use our 5 on 4 advantage. One way is those assists off the rim. A few of those might get Brittney to run more and be more tired.
(most numbers reflect average per 40 min)
Rebounding is about even.
Baylor opponents had an average of 62.7 FGA and 45.2 offensive rebound opportunities (ORO) Baylor averaged 59.2 FGA and 34.3 ORO. Stanford opp. had 60.4 FGA and 42.3 ORO. Stanford had 62.2 FGA and 35.6 ORO. Stanford had more FGA than their opponents; Baylor had fewer.Â
Baylor had 7.9 blocks. Baylor opp. had 2.3 blocks. Stanford had 4.7 blocks. Stanford opp. had 2.4 blocks.
What point value would you put on a block? I'll note that a block is less valuable than a steal. A steal definitely ends a possession. A block seems about the same as a missed shot. It doesn't definitely end the possession. If a team is shooting 50% from 2pt range (where a block happens), then a block converts a 50% chance into a 0% chance, or about 1 point. If we assume that block recoveries are like offensive rebounds, if a team rebounds 40% of their offensive chances, and scores an average of 1.75 points/possession (which is what I've estimated for Stanford), they get a lot of that 1 point back, leaving a net value of 0.3 points. Baylor's advantage on blocks works out to be worth about 1 point, or probably a bit more for 2 reasons: (a) That 1.75 pts/possession is based on a 30 second possession, but recovered shot blocks are shorter possessions; (b) blocked shots are probably more in the 70-80% range. Still, if Baylor blocks are worth 1 point advantage, that's still only 3.2 points advantage. (It is harder to estimate the effect of altered shots.)
I'm more concerned about the 2 extra steals by Baylor than I am about the extra 3.2 blocks. But, when I look at total turnovers, I'd have to guess TO will wind up about equal.
It is a concern that Baylor has more assists than us. That's reflects good team play.
The foul numbers are clearly in Baylor's favor. I'm sure that is a function of trying to defend Griner. It is something we can control, and I hope we do. Griner definitely reaches over people for rebounds and blocks, without fouling. Knowing how to jump up through her arms should be a method to get fouls called on her. If more overall fouls are called, I think it will be more beneficial to Stanford as we seem to have more (potential) depth. (I say "potential" because Taylor and Bonnie haven't proved themselves in the tourney.)
If we are at a point where there are noticeably more fouls on us than Baylor (late in the 1st, early in the 2nd), I might put Sarah B. in when Griner is in. The refs may be less inclined to call fouls on her and more inclined to call them on Griner. I don't think Sarah can block out Griner nor shoot over her. She'd be in there just to give the O sisters a rest and maybe to get some fouls called on Griner.
Baylor's player's average playing time & height for players with > 10min/gm
Griner 32.4 6'8"
Sims 31.8 5'9"
Hayden 26.0Â 6'0"
Williams 25.6Â 6'1"
Madden 25.1Â 6'0"
Condrey 19.1Â 5'7"
Pope 14.8Â 6'1"
So there's no one on their team with much playing time that is taller than 6'1".
Stanford has
Nneka 30.3 6'2"
Toni 30.0Â 5'11"
Chiney 28.5Â 6'3"
Jos 23.9Â 6'3"
Lindy 22.5Â 5'8"
Amber 19.3Â 5'7"
Taylor 17.5Â 6'3"
Bonnie 10.8Â 6'3"
Sarah 10.4Â 6'5"
So Baylor will likely have the height advantage on one or two players, and Stanford will have advantage on 3 or 4.
Sims is their shooter; Williams is their rebounder (more rebounds/minute than Griner). I'd guess that Chiney will guard Williams. On defense, I might put Jos (more experienced at blocking out, less critical if she gets early fouls) on Brittney.
On offense, I'd put one O sister on each block. Nneka's fade away shots might be useful if Griner is on her, but Griner may be on Chiney.
I might disagree about the early 3s in particular cases. If Brittney is slow down the court to the defensive end, we should use our 5 on 4 advantage. One way is those assists off the rim. A few of those might get Brittney to run more and be more tired.
| Â Team | Â GP | Â FG | Â FGA | Â Pct | Â 3FG | Â 3FGA | Â Pct | Â FT | Â FTA | Â Pct | Â OR | Â DR | Â R/gm | Â OR% | Â PF | Â FO | Â A | Â TO | Â Blk | Â Stl | Â Pts/gm |
| Â Baylor | Â 38 | Â 29.0 | Â 59.2 | Â .490 | Â 3.6 | Â 10.7 | Â .337 | Â 17.2 | Â 24.0 | Â .716 | Â 14.6 | Â 30.7 | Â 45.3 | Â .426 | Â 12.8 | Â 2 | Â 18.4 | Â 14.0 | Â 7.9 | Â 8.6 | Â 78.9 |
| Â B.opp | Â 38 | Â [u]19.3[/u] | Â 62.7 | Â .309 | Â 5.1 | Â 19.2 | Â .266 | Â 8.2 | Â 12.1 | Â .680 | Â 14.5 | Â 19.7 | Â 34.2 | Â .321 | Â 19.3 | Â - | Â 10.8 | Â 15.7 | Â 2.3 | Â 6.6 | Â 52.0 |
| Â Stanford | Â 36 | Â 28.5 | Â 61.9 | Â .460 | Â 5.3 | Â 16.6 | Â .316 | Â 14.3 | Â 18.7 | Â .762 | Â 14.6 | Â 29.2 | Â 43.9 | Â .411 | Â 13.8 | Â 0 | Â 16.7 | Â 12.6 | Â 4.8 | Â 6.7 | Â 76.8 |
| Â S.opp | Â 36 | Â 20.4 | Â 60.2 | Â .339 | Â 3.9 | Â 16.2 | Â .241 | Â 10.3 | Â 15.3 | Â .673 | Â 12.9 | Â 20.9 | Â 33.9 | Â .306 | Â 15.9 | Â - | Â 9.1 | Â 14.1 | Â 2.4 | Â 6.6 | Â 55.2 |
Rebounding is about even.
Baylor opponents had an average of 62.7 FGA and 45.2 offensive rebound opportunities (ORO) Baylor averaged 59.2 FGA and 34.3 ORO. Stanford opp. had 60.4 FGA and 42.3 ORO. Stanford had 62.2 FGA and 35.6 ORO. Stanford had more FGA than their opponents; Baylor had fewer.Â
Baylor had 7.9 blocks. Baylor opp. had 2.3 blocks. Stanford had 4.7 blocks. Stanford opp. had 2.4 blocks.
What point value would you put on a block? I'll note that a block is less valuable than a steal. A steal definitely ends a possession. A block seems about the same as a missed shot. It doesn't definitely end the possession. If a team is shooting 50% from 2pt range (where a block happens), then a block converts a 50% chance into a 0% chance, or about 1 point. If we assume that block recoveries are like offensive rebounds, if a team rebounds 40% of their offensive chances, and scores an average of 1.75 points/possession (which is what I've estimated for Stanford), they get a lot of that 1 point back, leaving a net value of 0.3 points. Baylor's advantage on blocks works out to be worth about 1 point, or probably a bit more for 2 reasons: (a) That 1.75 pts/possession is based on a 30 second possession, but recovered shot blocks are shorter possessions; (b) blocked shots are probably more in the 70-80% range. Still, if Baylor blocks are worth 1 point advantage, that's still only 3.2 points advantage. (It is harder to estimate the effect of altered shots.)
I'm more concerned about the 2 extra steals by Baylor than I am about the extra 3.2 blocks. But, when I look at total turnovers, I'd have to guess TO will wind up about equal.
It is a concern that Baylor has more assists than us. That's reflects good team play.
The foul numbers are clearly in Baylor's favor. I'm sure that is a function of trying to defend Griner. It is something we can control, and I hope we do. Griner definitely reaches over people for rebounds and blocks, without fouling. Knowing how to jump up through her arms should be a method to get fouls called on her. If more overall fouls are called, I think it will be more beneficial to Stanford as we seem to have more (potential) depth. (I say "potential" because Taylor and Bonnie haven't proved themselves in the tourney.)
If we are at a point where there are noticeably more fouls on us than Baylor (late in the 1st, early in the 2nd), I might put Sarah B. in when Griner is in. The refs may be less inclined to call fouls on her and more inclined to call them on Griner. I don't think Sarah can block out Griner nor shoot over her. She'd be in there just to give the O sisters a rest and maybe to get some fouls called on Griner.