11-29-2020, 11:53 AM
(11-28-2020, 09:04 AM)DocSavage87 Wrote:(11-27-2020, 09:14 PM)Goose Wrote:
As you probably have already noted, I do believe that MOST Trump voters believe that the election was honest. The polls from Nov 7 to Nov 17 were taken before the court rulings and state election certifications etc. ... Yes, I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair and that number is growing with each passing day.
So there was a poll a few weeks ago that you now dismiss and claim that not only have the numbers flipped in terms of the % of his supporters who believe him, but you believe they believe him less every day. I think you are simply postulating based on how you feel and not what we see. You can claim Twitter, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, etc, are all not representative. That's your opinion. I think you are wrong. You have no data to back you up. I at least have some data that show recently, I was most certainly correct. And that's before the echo chamber has plenty of chance to reinforce the lies.
OK, Take a look at
https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking...elections/
I think it illustrates my point. This poll is dated November 23. In this poll, 62% of Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair. This is lower than the polls from previous weeks, as I anticipated. So there is some data to back up the idea the Republicans are slowly adjusting to reality.
More importantly, we know that the Trumpustani tend to answer the polls based on how it will be perceived, not necessarily as they really believe. We know this because Trump did much better that the polls predicted in the election. Consider that Trump has yet to concede and has claimed he will prove massive fraud. Elections are also emotional things. If a Trump supporter tells a pollster he agrees that the election was free and fair, he is a "traitor" in his own eyes. He isn't going to do that, even if he believes it is so. Quoting from the same poll:
Quote:18 percent of Republican voters say Trump should concede the election right away, 46 percent say he should concede eventually if he is unable to back up his claims of widespread fraud and 28 percent say he should not concede no matter what.That 28% is the "real" number of "die hard" Trump supporters. The rest already have gotten over it or are getting over it. Probably some of the 28% will too after the Electoral College meets etc. The reason why concession statements are important is the candidate is telling his supporters that it is alright to accept the fact that they have lost. The fact Trump hasn't issued one is a real problem. It is also probable he never will do so. It is making it lots harder for people to "stand down". Eventually, the vast majority will anyway, but it will take a while. Just another demonstration of who Trump is, unfortunately. Note also that on November 19, the similar number in another poll was 38%.
The last "take away" from the poll is IMHO very telling:
Quote:Overall trust in elections has plummeted among Republicans: Prior to the election, 66 percent of GOP voters said they had at least some trust in the U.S. election system. In the latest poll, that dropped to 37 percent. Democratic trust, meanwhile, jumped from 63 percent to 80 percent.The side that won has a vested emotional interest in the elections being fair. Their good result is valid only if that is the case. Therefore, the poll numbers rise 17% among them. OTOH, the side that lost really doesn't like the result, and has an emotional interest in the idea "we were robbed". Therefore the poll numbers drop 29%. Really no new data regarding election fairness, only who won. Similar to the number of "Old Blues" that are probably saying today there was no holding on the interception and the refs are incompetent. Same dynamic. I expect in four years the numbers will be back pretty much to where they were before this election. If you want to worry about something, worry about the fact that before the election 34% of the Republicans and 37% of the Democrats DIDN'T have some trust in the election results. Seems alarmingly high to me. Also, I wonder if the 37 vs 34 is "hysteresis" from the 2016 election (and it will be reversed in 2024) or is it something else.
