(GR, the SCC data dashboard with 801 indicates it was "Last updated: 11/30/2020 3:23 PM")
I ran some numbers over the US case and death numbers and confirmed CFR (deaths/diagnosed cases) is most stable by comparing deaths today versus new cases 21 days earlier, as we've heard before. For the US, (incremental) CFR for the last couple of months has been around 1.7-1.8%. That means that for every 60 new cases, we should expect 1 death. So these 600 new cases per day can be read as 10 expected deaths per day, 300 deaths per month.
The CDC indicates the normal death rate for the US is about 870 per 100K. For SCC, that would be 870/100K *2M = 17,400/yr = 1,450/mo = 47.6/day
So, at 600 new COVID cases a day in SCC (30 cases/100K), the death rate from COVID is expected to be about 20% higher than normal.
Also worrisome is that the rate of case growth (or, slightly differently, R) has not reduced at all despite the warnings. R is currently calculated at 1.5.
At that rate, we'll see 1600 new cases a day by the end of next week (indicating an expected 28 deaths a day by Christmas, nearly a 60% increase over normal).
I hope we don't get there.
In terms of estimated R, Santa Clara is the highest county (R=1.53) in the highest state (Calif. R = 1.36) in the nation right now. (The good news is that this means the other states' R has been dropping. 3.5 weeks ago, there were 13 states with R >= 1.36)
I ran some numbers over the US case and death numbers and confirmed CFR (deaths/diagnosed cases) is most stable by comparing deaths today versus new cases 21 days earlier, as we've heard before. For the US, (incremental) CFR for the last couple of months has been around 1.7-1.8%. That means that for every 60 new cases, we should expect 1 death. So these 600 new cases per day can be read as 10 expected deaths per day, 300 deaths per month.
The CDC indicates the normal death rate for the US is about 870 per 100K. For SCC, that would be 870/100K *2M = 17,400/yr = 1,450/mo = 47.6/day
So, at 600 new COVID cases a day in SCC (30 cases/100K), the death rate from COVID is expected to be about 20% higher than normal.
Also worrisome is that the rate of case growth (or, slightly differently, R) has not reduced at all despite the warnings. R is currently calculated at 1.5.
At that rate, we'll see 1600 new cases a day by the end of next week (indicating an expected 28 deaths a day by Christmas, nearly a 60% increase over normal).
I hope we don't get there.
In terms of estimated R, Santa Clara is the highest county (R=1.53) in the highest state (Calif. R = 1.36) in the nation right now. (The good news is that this means the other states' R has been dropping. 3.5 weeks ago, there were 13 states with R >= 1.36)