12-02-2020, 08:24 PM
(12-02-2020, 06:35 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/us/ca...ticleShareBack in March, I quoted the AHA indicating California had 74K acute care beds. On March 15, the governor indicated 74K beds with a surge capacity of 8K more. On March 18, he indicated 88K beds.
We have about 72,000 physical beds in the state (one of the lowest ratios to population).
The AHA (American Hospital Association) has a tool showing an estimate of hospital beds in use at a future date using UW-IHME Models, for all states. You can adjust a slider for the date, and a slider for % beds used by non-COVID patients, and a choice for Best Case, Std, or Worst Case.
If you hover over California, they show some 85K beds of which 7361 are ICU beds.
Their default setting is 60% of the beds are occupied by non-COVID patients. If you leave that setting as is, and move forward in time, on California is project to have this % of all beds occupied
Jan. 1: ALL: Best: 67%, Std: 73%, Worst: 87%, ICU: Best: 80%, Std: 100%, Worst: 139%
Jan 8: ALL: Best: 68%, Std: 76%, Worst: 93%, ICU: Best: 82%, Std: 107%, Worst: 156%
Jan 15: ALL: Best: 69%, Std: 79%, Worst: 99%, ICU: Best: 87%, Std: 115%, Worst: 176%
Jan 22: ALL: Best: 71%, Std: 84%, Worst: 104%, ICU: Best: 91%, Std: 124%, Worst: 190%
Jan 22: ALL: Best: 72%, Std: 85%, Worst: 106%, ICU: Best: 96%, Std: 132%, Worst: 194%
