[teejers1]

It seems you are assuming all the December doses will be first doses, and increasing production will account for second doses and the next round of first doses. 

I'm not sure that's how they are planning it, at least initially while production is still ramping up. I'm guessing they will not be putting shots in arms if they don't already have access to the second round shots for those patients. We already saw Pfizer had issues with production, would be a big problem if lots of people only got one dose and couldn't get the second from some snafu. 

Once reliability in the production and delivery is known, maybe they will be putting first shots in while still waiting for delivery of the second one.

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Here is an interesting interview with the lone CDC ACIP member who voted against including LTCF patients in the initial vaccination stage. Seems a big concern of hers is since LTCF patients are at a high risk of dying and having major health problems in general, if several die or have a stroke or heart attack soon after getting the vaccine, this could scare people into thinking they are related to the vaccination and reduce vaccine confidence.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/03/cdc-...ine-first/

Interesting point.
Maybe some LTCF residents don't have much reason to get out (either no family or friends living any longer).  Perhaps for them the risk of negative side-effect trumps the benefit of vaccine.

But I'll bet the majority of residents would knowingly take the risk if it meant being able to get out and see family, in person, for the first time in 9 months.  I know Christmas is probably not gonna happen, but that would be one helluva present for one 97 year old I know.  

Realize this doesn't address the concern raised - namely that any negative reaction/deaths from LTCFs would depress interest in people getting vaccinated - but how would anyone really be able to tie the two together?  Are the death certificates going to say "died of complications from receiving vaccine?"  Or do you think the reporting will just be "LTCF X had residents vaccinated on December 20, and 3 residents reportedly died within a week of that?"  That's a serious question

[teejers1]

It seems you are assuming all the December doses will be first doses, and increasing production will account for second doses and the next round of first doses. 

I'm not sure that's how they are planning it, at least initially while production is still ramping up. I'm guessing they will not be putting shots in arms if they don't already have access to the second round shots for those patients. We already saw Pfizer had issues with production, would be a big problem if lots of people only got one dose and couldn't get the second from some snafu. 

Once reliability in the production and delivery is known, maybe they will be putting first shots in while still waiting for delivery of the second one.

---

Here is an interesting interview with the lone CDC ACIP member who voted against including LTCF patients in the initial vaccination stage. Seems a big concern of hers is since LTCF patients are at a high risk of dying and having major health problems in general, if several die or have a stroke or heart attack soon after getting the vaccine, this could scare people into thinking they are related to the vaccination and reduce vaccine confidence.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/03/cdc-...ine-first/

Interesting point.
Maybe some LTCF residents don't have much reason to get out (either no family or friends living any longer).  Perhaps for them the risk of negative side-effect trumps the benefit of vaccine.

But I'll bet the majority of residents would knowingly take the risk if it meant being able to get out and see family, in person, for the first time in 9 months.  I know Christmas is probably not gonna happen, but that would be one helluva present for one 97 year old I know.  

Realize this doesn't address the concern raised - namely that any negative reaction/deaths from LTCFs would depress interest in people getting vaccinated - but how would anyone really be able to tie the two together?  Are the death certificates going to say "died of complications from receiving vaccine?"  Or do you think the reporting will just be "LTCF X had residents vaccinated on December 20, and 3 residents reportedly died within a week of that?"  That's a serious question