12-08-2020, 11:01 AM
When I say above that the top 3 will stay the same but if I had my druthers I'd shift Arbuthnott down to 3, those are my conservative druthers. Depending on how they looked, I might try for bolder druthers for a lineup like this:
1. Gordon
2. Blake
3. Geller
4. Arbuthnott
5. Houghton
6. Choy
Arbuthnott disappointing at 2 and Blake thriving at 3 as a true freshman makes it likely that Blake will be an obvious choice over her for the 2 spot this year. And while I've been bullish on Houghton, Geller being international makes it tougher to get a handle on her. But she's got a higher UTR than Houghton, a higher ITF juniors ranking, and better results against other top players, so maybe she does so well in the early going that you just can't deny her that spot.
Shin's level of play was obviously down last year, and it didn't seem to get better when she moved down a line, so perhaps there were unique stressors that affected her play and that, if resolved, will mean she's right back where she was when she was dominating at 5 as a sophomore. And really, you could slot Shin at 6 and she'd likely crush it. And so would Madurawe. Higuchi would do there what Higuchi does. But I gave the nod to Choy because I really liked what I saw out of her last year. It'll be something of a revolving door as it needs to be to get folks dual match experience, but I don't think our best lineup means having both Arbuthnott and Shin in our top 4.
I know, I know, we have ten scholarship players, including two fifth years, and I'm putting two true freshmen in the singles lineup. And Houghton or Geller might not be better than Arbuthnott right now. But if not, I think they will be relatively quickly, and top-level matches is what's going to drive that improvement. I think the world of Arbuthnott, her toughness, her academics, and what she's contributed to this team. But I think we found her ceiling last year. And we may have found Shin's as well. Geller and Houghton are "Top 5 recruit" type players, while Arbuthnott, Shin, Choy, and Madurawe are more like Top 10-20 type recruits. Which is great! But I think the ceiling is higher for Geller and Houghton, and I'm interested to see how high it can be.
Imagine, then, what our Spring 2022 lineup could look like, with that monster class coming in next year:
1. Blake (Jr.)
2. Geller (So.)
3. Houghton (So.)
4. Connie Ma (Fr.)
5. Choy (Sr.)
6. Alexandra Yepifanova (Fr.)
With Madurawe (Sr.), Mossmer (Jr.), and Valencia Xu (Fr.) on the bench. And that's only if Gordon or Shin don't come back for their 5th years!
That is absolutely a championship-caliber lineup. We might not be there yet this year (though we're still a top 5 team), but the 2022 season looks bright.
1. Gordon
2. Blake
3. Geller
4. Arbuthnott
5. Houghton
6. Choy
Arbuthnott disappointing at 2 and Blake thriving at 3 as a true freshman makes it likely that Blake will be an obvious choice over her for the 2 spot this year. And while I've been bullish on Houghton, Geller being international makes it tougher to get a handle on her. But she's got a higher UTR than Houghton, a higher ITF juniors ranking, and better results against other top players, so maybe she does so well in the early going that you just can't deny her that spot.
Shin's level of play was obviously down last year, and it didn't seem to get better when she moved down a line, so perhaps there were unique stressors that affected her play and that, if resolved, will mean she's right back where she was when she was dominating at 5 as a sophomore. And really, you could slot Shin at 6 and she'd likely crush it. And so would Madurawe. Higuchi would do there what Higuchi does. But I gave the nod to Choy because I really liked what I saw out of her last year. It'll be something of a revolving door as it needs to be to get folks dual match experience, but I don't think our best lineup means having both Arbuthnott and Shin in our top 4.
I know, I know, we have ten scholarship players, including two fifth years, and I'm putting two true freshmen in the singles lineup. And Houghton or Geller might not be better than Arbuthnott right now. But if not, I think they will be relatively quickly, and top-level matches is what's going to drive that improvement. I think the world of Arbuthnott, her toughness, her academics, and what she's contributed to this team. But I think we found her ceiling last year. And we may have found Shin's as well. Geller and Houghton are "Top 5 recruit" type players, while Arbuthnott, Shin, Choy, and Madurawe are more like Top 10-20 type recruits. Which is great! But I think the ceiling is higher for Geller and Houghton, and I'm interested to see how high it can be.
Imagine, then, what our Spring 2022 lineup could look like, with that monster class coming in next year:
1. Blake (Jr.)
2. Geller (So.)
3. Houghton (So.)
4. Connie Ma (Fr.)
5. Choy (Sr.)
6. Alexandra Yepifanova (Fr.)
With Madurawe (Sr.), Mossmer (Jr.), and Valencia Xu (Fr.) on the bench. And that's only if Gordon or Shin don't come back for their 5th years!
That is absolutely a championship-caliber lineup. We might not be there yet this year (though we're still a top 5 team), but the 2022 season looks bright.