[lex24]

The big difference in that game was 3rd down.

We made numerous plays for 7 or more yards on 3rd down, converting an outlandish number of those - especially compared to our previous games.

I wonder if some of this is just random variation.  WE were downright awful in third down conversions in our first two games (like, historically awful).  Did something change, or were the first two games really unlucky, and the fourth game lucky?

BC

FWIW, I think it was a bit of both. Particularly in the last drive, some of our third down conversions were long enough that they were not high probability events. Luck played a role there, and we were "due" some luck because of our historically low rate in the first two games. It is also true that Mills was "on" in the UW game and got the ball where it needed to be. Washington's defense also was tired and had not had a good game in general, so that helped as well.  We also didn't drop the ball, which in earlier games we had. The stars aligned and we played better. Both helped.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Mills had a full week to prepare for the game, too. In other words, I think this is a closer-to-accurate picture of Mills' talent WRT precision.

-m.

Bingo.

[lex24]

The big difference in that game was 3rd down.

We made numerous plays for 7 or more yards on 3rd down, converting an outlandish number of those - especially compared to our previous games.

I wonder if some of this is just random variation.  WE were downright awful in third down conversions in our first two games (like, historically awful).  Did something change, or were the first two games really unlucky, and the fourth game lucky?

BC

FWIW, I think it was a bit of both. Particularly in the last drive, some of our third down conversions were long enough that they were not high probability events. Luck played a role there, and we were "due" some luck because of our historically low rate in the first two games. It is also true that Mills was "on" in the UW game and got the ball where it needed to be. Washington's defense also was tired and had not had a good game in general, so that helped as well.  We also didn't drop the ball, which in earlier games we had. The stars aligned and we played better. Both helped.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Mills had a full week to prepare for the game, too. In other words, I think this is a closer-to-accurate picture of Mills' talent WRT precision.

-m.

Bingo.