[Genuine Realist]

This is going to be rank speculation on my part as the virus is very capricious, and anyone who makes any predictions about the course of the pandemic is almost assured of being wrong, but I suspect we won't see a vaccine ID card, but not for reasons you think.

My guess is that a combination of better weather, emerging immunity, and vaccination of the most vulnerable individuals will mean that we will be able to open up uniformly this spring.  The pandemic won't be over, but it will be improving quickly such that we might see an order of magnitude fewer deaths per day by April and a drastic reduction in hospitalizations.

At that point, activities will be based on individual risk tolerance, so we won't go back to normal, but we will be able to get most industries opened up again.  The only things I could see require some sort of proof of vaccination would be something like cruise ships, where there is a possibility of an outbreak.

BC

Easy proof of vaccination would certainly make a lot of people feel better about large indoor audiences (theatre and cinema), and airplane travel. 

In both cases, you'd present vaccination proof at the door or before entering the plane.

[Genuine Realist]

This is going to be rank speculation on my part as the virus is very capricious, and anyone who makes any predictions about the course of the pandemic is almost assured of being wrong, but I suspect we won't see a vaccine ID card, but not for reasons you think.

My guess is that a combination of better weather, emerging immunity, and vaccination of the most vulnerable individuals will mean that we will be able to open up uniformly this spring.  The pandemic won't be over, but it will be improving quickly such that we might see an order of magnitude fewer deaths per day by April and a drastic reduction in hospitalizations.

At that point, activities will be based on individual risk tolerance, so we won't go back to normal, but we will be able to get most industries opened up again.  The only things I could see require some sort of proof of vaccination would be something like cruise ships, where there is a possibility of an outbreak.

BC

Easy proof of vaccination would certainly make a lot of people feel better about large indoor audiences (theatre and cinema), and airplane travel. 

In both cases, you'd present vaccination proof at the door or before entering the plane.