[Genuine Realist]

It's obviously way too early to write history here.  The story of the vaccine will be a fascinating one when it appears. I hope to live to read it.

Agree, I will be looking forward to it as well.

Still, the fact is he bet his Presidency on being able to deliver a vaccine before Election Day, and lost by about three weeks.

I don't see it that way at all. What other options did he have? If the USA was still without an answer to COVID-19 on election day, what could he do about it? He tried just saying "We have turned the corner", but that was a tough sell. It wasn't a bet, because you can chose not to bet. He didn't have that choice.

In fact, he might not have lost at all if he weren't so personally obnoxious. Pfizer and Moderna were close enough to have put out favorable press before the election, but chose not to. They don't like him very much. Neither do I.

Maybe that will come out in the 5 year period, but I have another theory. Both Pfizer and Moderna were justifiably terrified of the FDA coming down on them like a ton of bricks for releasing a result from the data "peek" that had not been totally vetted and analyzed, and if not the FDA they also had to worry about the SEC (not the conference). Plenty of reasons to have all your ducks in a row before you say anything, because the down side of not doing so is quite spectacularly horrible.

Very plausible.

Still,the timing of the announcement -one week AFTER the election, too late to make any difference - is, shall we say, interesting.

[Genuine Realist]

It's obviously way too early to write history here.  The story of the vaccine will be a fascinating one when it appears. I hope to live to read it.

Agree, I will be looking forward to it as well.

Still, the fact is he bet his Presidency on being able to deliver a vaccine before Election Day, and lost by about three weeks.

I don't see it that way at all. What other options did he have? If the USA was still without an answer to COVID-19 on election day, what could he do about it? He tried just saying "We have turned the corner", but that was a tough sell. It wasn't a bet, because you can chose not to bet. He didn't have that choice.

In fact, he might not have lost at all if he weren't so personally obnoxious. Pfizer and Moderna were close enough to have put out favorable press before the election, but chose not to. They don't like him very much. Neither do I.

Maybe that will come out in the 5 year period, but I have another theory. Both Pfizer and Moderna were justifiably terrified of the FDA coming down on them like a ton of bricks for releasing a result from the data "peek" that had not been totally vetted and analyzed, and if not the FDA they also had to worry about the SEC (not the conference). Plenty of reasons to have all your ducks in a row before you say anything, because the down side of not doing so is quite spectacularly horrible.

Very plausible.

Still,the timing of the announcement -one week AFTER the election, too late to make any difference - is, shall we say, interesting.