[Farm93]

There are more than 30 million aged 65-74. Putting them in the 3rd group makes the 2nd group more manageable and gets the most essential front-line workers vaccinated sooner.  That should help with the reopening of the schools.

"frontline essential workers"  They are using a name that makes you think of EMTs & police, but they do not define them.  By the time they do, will it include Uber drivers and parking enforcement officers?   Deli clerks & car oil changers?  The Walmart greeter?   Your paper delivery person?  The make-up salespeople at Macy's?   

Who is going to define them?  Who is going to enforce this?  Will an employer be given chits to hand out?  (Who do you think will get the chits once the company is given them?)  You can bet the people giving the shots won't be in a position to enforce it. ("Can I see your job description, please?"  "Why, I'm the CFO of a car-repair chain and have business meetings every day.")

Vaccine delivery to teachers in 1b:  OWS isn't predicting 50M first doses distributed until end of January, but 1a+1b = 73M.   So, first doses can't be assumed until mid February at the best, with full vaccination by mid-March.    Guaranteed vaccination in June would serve to make the teachers vaccinated for the fall semester, even for those that start in August.  But, note that NO K-10 CHILDREN are scheduled for any vaccination before the fall semester.   So, there is no protection for the children in schools in the fall.  It will take months for such trials, and all vaccine manufacturing through June is already spoken for.


Moving the 30 million 65-74 population makes the 3rd group a completely unmanageable 129M people, for which there is only 77M approved & purchased COVID vaccine courses through end of June.  So, at this point, this committee has NO recommendation for the set of people to get the vaccinations now approved & purchased.  It only recommended a smaller subset, that had already been expected to be in the group vaccinated.

The only explanation I can think of is that 1c will get split into 1c and 1d.  1d will get split into 1d and 1e.
If they'd said, "We've estimated the amount of vaccine through mid-February, and are prioritizing for the allotments for 2 months.  In January, we will re-prioritize 1c for February/March allotments," then it would make sense, but they didn't.  

I don't agree with their current priorities as a means to reducing deaths or even cases.  I can only imagine new surprises the next time as more people that thought they would get the vaccine before late summer are told No!

Full disclosure:  I am in the group that got bumped out of near certainty of getting the vaccine into the lottery(?) group.

For those not yet aware it should be clear really soon.  WARP Speed was about getting the vaccine authorized for use and shipping it out the door.
The who/where/how type elements were not in that project.  
The states, and then the healthcare providers, get to determine a lot of the other elements.

As the allocation does seem to be a state matter, it seems most of us will be looking to Newsom and a team of state government and health care administrators to determine the sequence.   As many in that group will also be trying to control the COVID case growth, hospitalization and death rates, I expect the vaccine distribution will not be optimal.

My household has a touch of everything.   We have an 80 year old, 2 people in the 45-60 group, a 17 year-old, and a 15 year-old.  My expectation is that the 80 year old will get something in February, me and my spouse will be in Q2, the 17 year-old will be in early Q3 as he is college bound, and my 15 year-old might very well turn 16 before any vaccine is approved for <16 yo.   Therefore he would be vaccinated in early Q4.  Until we hit those rough windows I am not going to stress over the allocations.

I am confident NCAA D1 athletes, movie stars, and the wealthiest 1,000 Americans will all get the vaccine before me.   I would not be shocked if that group gets a vaccine before my 80 year-old mother-in-law.  The little snafu at the Stanford Medical Center will happen over and over again.  

With millions of vaccines to distribute, and precious little planning, there will be hundreds of stories that could become frustrating for many still in line.  Seems likely to me that POTUS45 understood the actual sorting of the people in the vaccination line was a political loser and that most state officials will discover that soon. 

So this could get a bit ugly, as no one will want to own placing 70-79 year-olds into the Q2 allocations given the near certain result that thousands of those 70 somethings will then die of COVID in Q1.

[Farm93]

There are more than 30 million aged 65-74. Putting them in the 3rd group makes the 2nd group more manageable and gets the most essential front-line workers vaccinated sooner.  That should help with the reopening of the schools.

"frontline essential workers"  They are using a name that makes you think of EMTs & police, but they do not define them.  By the time they do, will it include Uber drivers and parking enforcement officers?   Deli clerks & car oil changers?  The Walmart greeter?   Your paper delivery person?  The make-up salespeople at Macy's?   

Who is going to define them?  Who is going to enforce this?  Will an employer be given chits to hand out?  (Who do you think will get the chits once the company is given them?)  You can bet the people giving the shots won't be in a position to enforce it. ("Can I see your job description, please?"  "Why, I'm the CFO of a car-repair chain and have business meetings every day.")

Vaccine delivery to teachers in 1b:  OWS isn't predicting 50M first doses distributed until end of January, but 1a+1b = 73M.   So, first doses can't be assumed until mid February at the best, with full vaccination by mid-March.    Guaranteed vaccination in June would serve to make the teachers vaccinated for the fall semester, even for those that start in August.  But, note that NO K-10 CHILDREN are scheduled for any vaccination before the fall semester.   So, there is no protection for the children in schools in the fall.  It will take months for such trials, and all vaccine manufacturing through June is already spoken for.


Moving the 30 million 65-74 population makes the 3rd group a completely unmanageable 129M people, for which there is only 77M approved & purchased COVID vaccine courses through end of June.  So, at this point, this committee has NO recommendation for the set of people to get the vaccinations now approved & purchased.  It only recommended a smaller subset, that had already been expected to be in the group vaccinated.

The only explanation I can think of is that 1c will get split into 1c and 1d.  1d will get split into 1d and 1e.
If they'd said, "We've estimated the amount of vaccine through mid-February, and are prioritizing for the allotments for 2 months.  In January, we will re-prioritize 1c for February/March allotments," then it would make sense, but they didn't.  

I don't agree with their current priorities as a means to reducing deaths or even cases.  I can only imagine new surprises the next time as more people that thought they would get the vaccine before late summer are told No!

Full disclosure:  I am in the group that got bumped out of near certainty of getting the vaccine into the lottery(?) group.

For those not yet aware it should be clear really soon.  WARP Speed was about getting the vaccine authorized for use and shipping it out the door.
The who/where/how type elements were not in that project.  
The states, and then the healthcare providers, get to determine a lot of the other elements.

As the allocation does seem to be a state matter, it seems most of us will be looking to Newsom and a team of state government and health care administrators to determine the sequence.   As many in that group will also be trying to control the COVID case growth, hospitalization and death rates, I expect the vaccine distribution will not be optimal.

My household has a touch of everything.   We have an 80 year old, 2 people in the 45-60 group, a 17 year-old, and a 15 year-old.  My expectation is that the 80 year old will get something in February, me and my spouse will be in Q2, the 17 year-old will be in early Q3 as he is college bound, and my 15 year-old might very well turn 16 before any vaccine is approved for <16 yo.   Therefore he would be vaccinated in early Q4.  Until we hit those rough windows I am not going to stress over the allocations.

I am confident NCAA D1 athletes, movie stars, and the wealthiest 1,000 Americans will all get the vaccine before me.   I would not be shocked if that group gets a vaccine before my 80 year-old mother-in-law.  The little snafu at the Stanford Medical Center will happen over and over again.  

With millions of vaccines to distribute, and precious little planning, there will be hundreds of stories that could become frustrating for many still in line.  Seems likely to me that POTUS45 understood the actual sorting of the people in the vaccination line was a political loser and that most state officials will discover that soon. 

So this could get a bit ugly, as no one will want to own placing 70-79 year-olds into the Q2 allocations given the near certain result that thousands of those 70 somethings will then die of COVID in Q1.