[needle]

With Mills it depends a lot on his "current" draft position. If he is already a first round pick, no reason to wait. In fact, later first round may get him a better team than early first round, albeit less money. The challenge is of course to accurately determine what your draft position actually is. Playing next year at Stanford makes sense only if he is not a first round pick. Even then, there is the risk of injury, and with his history that could potentially torpedo getting drafted at all.

here ranks him the 16th QB

https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.89.
Projected Round (2021): 6-FA.
View Ranking History

12/15/20: Mills finally got to play after missing the start of the Pac-12's season due to a COVID-19 test. He has completed over 65 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards and four scores. He also has 25 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

8/29/20: Mills was in and out of the lineup for Stanford in 2019, but he flashed some potential with the ability to improve as he gains experience. It will be interesting to see how Mills develops as the full-time starter.

and here

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-d...-rankings/

projects 88th pick (8th QB)

I'd love it if Mills stayed at Stanford, obviously.  But no way he falls past the second round.  If so, he will be an absolute steal for a team.

If that's the case, he should obviously go.  I just wonder whether the NFL's GMs feel that he's a 1st or 2nd rounder.  I looked at a number of media rankings, and I just don't see how a QB from the weakest of the Power 5 conferences gets selected early:

Bleacher report: Mills is not ranked in the Top Ten QBs:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2917...-nfl-draft

Sports Illustrated.  Not in the Top Five QBs:
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/rankin...-nfl-draft

CBS.  not in the Top 11 QBs (and not in the top 150 prospects):
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pros...rterbacks/
Also didn't make CBS's "other QBs to watch:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-...-lawrence/

Steelerswire.  Not in the Top Ten:
https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/galler...yle-trask/

#16 in Walter Football.
https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

I'm struggling to understand how he gets selected in the draft at all, much less the top two rounds.  I think he should come back for another year.

FWIW, one player grading site, Pro Football Focus, had Mills the top-rated QB in the Pac:

QUARTERBACK
First-Team: Davis Mills, Stanford
In a shocking turn of events, this first-team quarterback spot does not belong to USC's Kedon Slovis. Rather, Stanford’s Davis Mills wins out after extremely rare improvement in accuracy this season compared to last.

In fact, his accurate pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage has jumped from 44% in 2019 to 65% in 2020 — the third-best rate in the FBS. That, among many other things, has helped Mills lead all Pac-12 quarterbacks in PFF grade (84.3).

https://www.pff.com/news/college-footbal...ac-12-team

[needle]

With Mills it depends a lot on his "current" draft position. If he is already a first round pick, no reason to wait. In fact, later first round may get him a better team than early first round, albeit less money. The challenge is of course to accurately determine what your draft position actually is. Playing next year at Stanford makes sense only if he is not a first round pick. Even then, there is the risk of injury, and with his history that could potentially torpedo getting drafted at all.

here ranks him the 16th QB

https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.89.
Projected Round (2021): 6-FA.
View Ranking History

12/15/20: Mills finally got to play after missing the start of the Pac-12's season due to a COVID-19 test. He has completed over 65 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards and four scores. He also has 25 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

8/29/20: Mills was in and out of the lineup for Stanford in 2019, but he flashed some potential with the ability to improve as he gains experience. It will be interesting to see how Mills develops as the full-time starter.

and here

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-d...-rankings/

projects 88th pick (8th QB)

I'd love it if Mills stayed at Stanford, obviously.  But no way he falls past the second round.  If so, he will be an absolute steal for a team.

If that's the case, he should obviously go.  I just wonder whether the NFL's GMs feel that he's a 1st or 2nd rounder.  I looked at a number of media rankings, and I just don't see how a QB from the weakest of the Power 5 conferences gets selected early:

Bleacher report: Mills is not ranked in the Top Ten QBs:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2917...-nfl-draft

Sports Illustrated.  Not in the Top Five QBs:
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/rankin...-nfl-draft

CBS.  not in the Top 11 QBs (and not in the top 150 prospects):
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pros...rterbacks/
Also didn't make CBS's "other QBs to watch:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-...-lawrence/

Steelerswire.  Not in the Top Ten:
https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/galler...yle-trask/

#16 in Walter Football.
https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

I'm struggling to understand how he gets selected in the draft at all, much less the top two rounds.  I think he should come back for another year.

FWIW, one player grading site, Pro Football Focus, had Mills the top-rated QB in the Pac:

QUARTERBACK
First-Team: Davis Mills, Stanford
In a shocking turn of events, this first-team quarterback spot does not belong to USC's Kedon Slovis. Rather, Stanford’s Davis Mills wins out after extremely rare improvement in accuracy this season compared to last.

In fact, his accurate pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage has jumped from 44% in 2019 to 65% in 2020 — the third-best rate in the FBS. That, among many other things, has helped Mills lead all Pac-12 quarterbacks in PFF grade (84.3).

https://www.pff.com/news/college-footbal...ac-12-team