12-31-2020, 01:45 PM
It isn't like you wake up one day and most of your population has a 90% or 50% vaccine. The effectiveness of the vaccine has to be multiplied by the ratio of the population, at least while their product is low.
A 90% effective vaccine in 1% of the population only helps about 1% of the population (end of December, counting first shots). We may get to 10% of the population by the end of January (16% is best case). Maybe 25% by the end of February (30% best case)
Then, if the Governor of California has his way, we stir the soup by having kids bring it home long before herd immunity across the adults & with 0% vaccinations in K-12.
A 90% effective vaccine in 1% of the population only helps about 1% of the population (end of December, counting first shots). We may get to 10% of the population by the end of January (16% is best case). Maybe 25% by the end of February (30% best case)
Then, if the Governor of California has his way, we stir the soup by having kids bring it home long before herd immunity across the adults & with 0% vaccinations in K-12.