01-25-2021, 11:05 AM
(01-24-2021, 09:25 PM)magnus Wrote:(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
I don't care what ESPN's model says. It was a bad decision. I'll prove it...
Would LaFleur have gone for 2 if the Packers were down 7 and scored a TD with 2:10 left to play in 4th, or would he have kicked the XP. I guarantee you he would have kicked the XP. There isn't even the slightest question he would have.
I get the whole idea of wanting to get within 3 not he lat 3rd quarter TD by going for 2, but even had they made it Tampa Bay still was up 6 after their FG. Green Bay would have gone for it on 4th with 2:10 left in 4th if they were down 6. So the only reason they didn't was because they didn't get the previous 2-pt conversion.
Maybe over the course of a season, going for 2 in the 3rd makes sense, but this was with 15:30 left to play in the NFC Championship Game, at home. You don't get these opportunities very often. Going for Trying to make it 28-25, instead of settling for 28-24, suggested a mentality that you couldn't score another TD in the 4th quarter. That's not a great show of confidence when your team needs it. Lo and behold, they in fact didn't score another TD in the 4th, and lacked so much confidence they even kicked a FG down 8, with 2:10 to go.
It would have been nice if they made the last 2-pt attempt, but the downside FAR outweighed the ROI for the risk taken. Again, I don't care what ESPN says.