[Papa John]

Another way to look at it is that, according to Rivals, Oregon and USC each signed more four- and five-stars (18 and 17, respectively) than Stanford's total number of scholarship signees (16).

If we go by average commit's Rivals star rating, Stanford's class is 48th, so the low-ranking is not because of lack of quantity.

Here's the  average commit's Rivals star ratings for each Stanford class going back to 2002, ordered from best to worst in terms of national ranking:
3.93--2017 (3rd)
3.73--2012 (4th)
3.45--2014 (14th)
3.33--2013 (17th)
3.32--2011 (17th)
3.35--2020 (18th)
3.27--2009 (20th)
3.27--2015 (20th)
3.16--2016 (23rd)
3.24--2019 (25th)
3.06--2002 (26th)
3.2--2018 (27th)
3.14--2010 (28th)
2.88--2005 (29th)
2.58--2004 (35th)
2.77--2003 (41st)
2.71--2008 (45th)
2.94--2021 (48th)
2.63--2007 (49th)
2.44--2006 (56th)

So over the past 20 years, the median class ranking for Stanford--based on average star rating for each commit--is mid 20s. Given that there are 65 power 5 teams, that's not overly impressive. Over the past 11 years, during the Shaw era, the median class ranking is 18th.

The Sagarin ratings for college football show that through 2010-2019 (2020 is an obvious outlier), the 18th ranked team finishes with a median of 9 wins and 4 losses. During the 9 years of the Shaw era preceding 2020, Stanford's median record is 10 wins and 3 losses. Stanford's median Sagarin rating during the same period is 14th.

I'm trying to establish a sense of reasonable expectations. Three Rose Bowls in four years is unsustainable and 4-8 is unacceptable. But based on recent history, while the goal is always a Pac-12 championship, 9 wins and a top 20 ranking is a solid benchmark.

[Papa John]

Another way to look at it is that, according to Rivals, Oregon and USC each signed more four- and five-stars (18 and 17, respectively) than Stanford's total number of scholarship signees (16).

If we go by average commit's Rivals star rating, Stanford's class is 48th, so the low-ranking is not because of lack of quantity.

Here's the  average commit's Rivals star ratings for each Stanford class going back to 2002, ordered from best to worst in terms of national ranking:
3.93--2017 (3rd)
3.73--2012 (4th)
3.45--2014 (14th)
3.33--2013 (17th)
3.32--2011 (17th)
3.35--2020 (18th)
3.27--2009 (20th)
3.27--2015 (20th)
3.16--2016 (23rd)
3.24--2019 (25th)
3.06--2002 (26th)
3.2--2018 (27th)
3.14--2010 (28th)
2.88--2005 (29th)
2.58--2004 (35th)
2.77--2003 (41st)
2.71--2008 (45th)
2.94--2021 (48th)
2.63--2007 (49th)
2.44--2006 (56th)

So over the past 20 years, the median class ranking for Stanford--based on average star rating for each commit--is mid 20s. Given that there are 65 power 5 teams, that's not overly impressive. Over the past 11 years, during the Shaw era, the median class ranking is 18th.

The Sagarin ratings for college football show that through 2010-2019 (2020 is an obvious outlier), the 18th ranked team finishes with a median of 9 wins and 4 losses. During the 9 years of the Shaw era preceding 2020, Stanford's median record is 10 wins and 3 losses. Stanford's median Sagarin rating during the same period is 14th.

I'm trying to establish a sense of reasonable expectations. Three Rose Bowls in four years is unsustainable and 4-8 is unacceptable. But based on recent history, while the goal is always a Pac-12 championship, 9 wins and a top 20 ranking is a solid benchmark.