03-10-2021, 05:26 PM
I was curious to see how 247sports 5-star men's BB recruits perform in college, so I looked up Pac-12 5-stars from 2016-2019 and their conference awards for their freshman season. I decided to use the Ziaire Williams baseline and group the players as "Greater than Ziaire"--meaning better than honorable mention all frosh team--or "Less than or Equal to Ziaire"--honorable mention all frosh team or worse.
Of the 22 5-stars from 2016-2019, 11 were Greater than Zaire and 11 were Less than or Equal to Ziaire
Of the Greater than Ziaire group:
7 were one and done, drafted
2 were one and done, not drafted
2 were two and done, not drafted
Of the Less than or Equal to Ziaire group:
5 were one and done, drafted
1 was one and done, not drafted
1 was two and done, drafted
4 are still playing college basketball, although two of those transferred
So I have two takeaways:
1. Ziaire Williams result, at least by the metric that I used, is near the median for 5-star men's BB players in the Pac-12. For every Lonzo Ball we have one Kobi Simmons.
2. The NBA has little or no problem with players from the Less than or Equal to Ziaire category. 5 out of 7 of those players who left college after one or two years were drafted.
This year only two 5-star players signed with Pac-12 schools: ZW at Stanford and Joshua Christopher at ASU. Both made Honorable Mention for the All Freshman Team.
Greater than Ziaire
* Rawle Alkins (Arizona)--All Freshman Team--two and done, not drafted
* Lonzo Ball (UCLA)--Freshman of the Year; All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team; Honorable mention All Defensive Team--one and done, drafted by the Lakers
* TJ Leaf (UCLA)--All Freshman Team; All Pac-12 First Team--one and done, drafted by the Pacers
* Markelle Fultz (Washington)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the 76ers
* Deandre Ayton (Arizona)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team; All Defensive Team--one and done, drafted by the Suns
* Kris Wilkes (UCLA)--All Freshman Team--two and done, not drafted
* Louis King (Oregon)--Honorable mention All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, not drafted
* Moses Brown (UCLA)--All Freshman Team; Honorable mention All Defensive Team--one and done, not drafted
* Nico Mannion (Arizona)--All Pac-12 Second Team; All Freshman Team--one and one, drafted by the Warriors
* Onyeka Okongwu (USC)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Hawks
* Isaiah Stewart (Washington)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Blazers
Less than or Equal to Ziaire
* Kobi Simmons (Arizona)--no awards--one and done, not drafted
* Emmanuel Akot (Arizona)--no awards--played two season with Arizona, transferred to Boise State
* Jaylen Hands (UCLA)--no awards, two and done, drafted by the Clippers
* Troy Brown (Oregon)--Honorable mention All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Wizards
* Bol Bol (Oregon)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Heat
* Kevin Porter, Jr. (USC)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Bucks
* N'Faly Dante (Oregon)--no awards--still at Oregon, but injured
* CJ Walker (Oregon)--no awards--transferred to UCF
* Josh Green (Arizona)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Mavericks
* Isaiah Mobley (USC)--no awards--still playing for USC
* Jaden McDaniels (Washington)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Lakers
Of the 22 5-stars from 2016-2019, 11 were Greater than Zaire and 11 were Less than or Equal to Ziaire
Of the Greater than Ziaire group:
7 were one and done, drafted
2 were one and done, not drafted
2 were two and done, not drafted
Of the Less than or Equal to Ziaire group:
5 were one and done, drafted
1 was one and done, not drafted
1 was two and done, drafted
4 are still playing college basketball, although two of those transferred
So I have two takeaways:
1. Ziaire Williams result, at least by the metric that I used, is near the median for 5-star men's BB players in the Pac-12. For every Lonzo Ball we have one Kobi Simmons.
2. The NBA has little or no problem with players from the Less than or Equal to Ziaire category. 5 out of 7 of those players who left college after one or two years were drafted.
This year only two 5-star players signed with Pac-12 schools: ZW at Stanford and Joshua Christopher at ASU. Both made Honorable Mention for the All Freshman Team.
Greater than Ziaire
* Rawle Alkins (Arizona)--All Freshman Team--two and done, not drafted
* Lonzo Ball (UCLA)--Freshman of the Year; All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team; Honorable mention All Defensive Team--one and done, drafted by the Lakers
* TJ Leaf (UCLA)--All Freshman Team; All Pac-12 First Team--one and done, drafted by the Pacers
* Markelle Fultz (Washington)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the 76ers
* Deandre Ayton (Arizona)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team; All Defensive Team--one and done, drafted by the Suns
* Kris Wilkes (UCLA)--All Freshman Team--two and done, not drafted
* Louis King (Oregon)--Honorable mention All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, not drafted
* Moses Brown (UCLA)--All Freshman Team; Honorable mention All Defensive Team--one and done, not drafted
* Nico Mannion (Arizona)--All Pac-12 Second Team; All Freshman Team--one and one, drafted by the Warriors
* Onyeka Okongwu (USC)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Hawks
* Isaiah Stewart (Washington)--All Pac-12 First Team; All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Blazers
Less than or Equal to Ziaire
* Kobi Simmons (Arizona)--no awards--one and done, not drafted
* Emmanuel Akot (Arizona)--no awards--played two season with Arizona, transferred to Boise State
* Jaylen Hands (UCLA)--no awards, two and done, drafted by the Clippers
* Troy Brown (Oregon)--Honorable mention All Freshman Team--one and done, drafted by the Wizards
* Bol Bol (Oregon)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Heat
* Kevin Porter, Jr. (USC)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Bucks
* N'Faly Dante (Oregon)--no awards--still at Oregon, but injured
* CJ Walker (Oregon)--no awards--transferred to UCF
* Josh Green (Arizona)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Mavericks
* Isaiah Mobley (USC)--no awards--still playing for USC
* Jaden McDaniels (Washington)--no awards--one and done, drafted by the Lakers
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)