03-15-2021, 05:46 PM
From the NCAA protocols: "A same-day protocol will be in place for potential false positive tests.". I suspect it was not announced until a 2nd test confirmed the test results.
The two mRNA vaccines "only" protect with 95% effectiveness (amazingly well) against getting laboratory-confirmed COVID. (As I understand it, the clinical trials did not test at the frequency of NCAA testing. I expect a number of asymptomatic cases were not detected, and that the true effectiveness against even asymptomatic COVID was less than 95%.)
The CDC indicates 147 cases/100K in CT in the past week. At that rate, there would be about 7 cases/100K of those with two shots of mRNA. (Probably closer to 10 since a fair number of the overall population has some level of protection from the vaccine.)
The CDC indicates 3K - 5K PCR tests per 100K in CT in the past week. 0.5% false positive rate suggests about 15-25 false positives per 100K population.
(For Moderna, vaccine effectiveness against getting COVID was roughly 95% beginning at 2 weeks after 1st dose)
Even if "fully vaccinated" (2 weeks past 2nd shot), Geno would be still required to be tested. (Those that had COVID after Dec. 9 are not required to be tested.)
I hope & expect that Geno has an asymptomatic case, and I wish him well. I hope that UConn players have not been infected. I expect that teams are limiting close exposure time between any two individuals to less than the 15-minutes and 6-foot commandment that is engraved on the stone tablets by the CDC.
I hope their players & staff are wise enough to stay even further apart and have less interaction to avoid any further spread than may have already happened.
Perhaps the specter that UConn might have COVID problems will reinforce teams' commitments to wear masks effectively when not on the court and avoid unnecessary contact (high fives, pats on the back). I see more and more laxity in hygiene against COVID on the court, even for Stanford (which is one of the least lax, but there are some).
The two mRNA vaccines "only" protect with 95% effectiveness (amazingly well) against getting laboratory-confirmed COVID. (As I understand it, the clinical trials did not test at the frequency of NCAA testing. I expect a number of asymptomatic cases were not detected, and that the true effectiveness against even asymptomatic COVID was less than 95%.)
The CDC indicates 147 cases/100K in CT in the past week. At that rate, there would be about 7 cases/100K of those with two shots of mRNA. (Probably closer to 10 since a fair number of the overall population has some level of protection from the vaccine.)
The CDC indicates 3K - 5K PCR tests per 100K in CT in the past week. 0.5% false positive rate suggests about 15-25 false positives per 100K population.
(For Moderna, vaccine effectiveness against getting COVID was roughly 95% beginning at 2 weeks after 1st dose)
Even if "fully vaccinated" (2 weeks past 2nd shot), Geno would be still required to be tested. (Those that had COVID after Dec. 9 are not required to be tested.)
I hope & expect that Geno has an asymptomatic case, and I wish him well. I hope that UConn players have not been infected. I expect that teams are limiting close exposure time between any two individuals to less than the 15-minutes and 6-foot commandment that is engraved on the stone tablets by the CDC.
I hope their players & staff are wise enough to stay even further apart and have less interaction to avoid any further spread than may have already happened.
Perhaps the specter that UConn might have COVID problems will reinforce teams' commitments to wear masks effectively when not on the court and avoid unnecessary contact (high fives, pats on the back). I see more and more laxity in hygiene against COVID on the court, even for Stanford (which is one of the least lax, but there are some).