04-12-2021, 10:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2021, 11:44 AM by ColoradoTree.)
A note on rankings
For the first time that I can remember, and due to the scheduling weirdness covid has created, the ITA is publishing both computer rankings and a coaches' poll in order to give the NCAA more information on how to seed teams for the tournament. (Usually, they only do the computer rankings this late in the season, and the NCAA almost always just defaults to using those for seeding purpose.) For a lot of teams, those numbers closely track: USC was #34 in the computers and #32 in the coaches' poll. But Stanford saw a pretty large split: #38 in the computer rankings and #26 in the coaches' poll.
A look at our opponents this week
Hawaii is 5-5, and we have three opponents in common: USC, UCSB, and UC Davis. We beat both Santa Barbara and Davis by 7-0 scores, while Hawaii lost 5-2 to UCSB and 4-2 to Davis. Hawaii's best player is Petra Melounova, but she hasn't played in the last handful of matches. Hawaii lost 6-1 to USC back in February, which is a better comparison, and back then, Eryn Cayetano beat Melounova 7-6, 7-5 at #1, USC rolled at #2 and #4, won competitive matches at #3 and #6, and it was Texas transfer Bojana Markovic who beat USC's Clare McKee in a third-set match tiebreaker for Hawaii's only point. (McKee is the player who Houghton beat, 3-6, 6-2, 7-5.)
Bottom line: Stanford is a good deal better than Hawaii. There might be some closer matches, but we should get to 4 points pretty quickly while those play out.
Cal is #27 in the computer rankings and #22 in the coaches' poll, and it suffered an ignominious loss of its own, a 4-3 match to CU in Boulder. They pulled off a 4-3 upset over a shorthanded UCLA in non-conference play, but just lost 7-0 to UCLA in what feels like a more accurate reflection of those two teams, with UCLA handily winning each singles match except for Court 5, where UCLA's Goulak beat Cal freshman Hannah Viller Moeller in three sets. (The first of the three matchups this season was a 4-0 UCLA win.)
Cal has made a habit of close matches, beating UW, WSU, Oregon, and USC by 4-3 scores (we beat UW, WSU, and USC by 6-1 scores but lost 4-3 to Oregon). They lost 6-1 to Pepperdine even without Lahey in the lineup, and later lost 4-3 to Pepperdine with Lahey but without Failla in the lineup, while we had a full-strength Pepperdine team on the ropes before dropping a heartbreaker. Let's look at those five matches to see if patterns emerge:
Washington: Stanford won a tight doubles point and clinched the match quickly behind routine wins from Higuchi, Blake, and Geller. Choy made it 5 with a 6-4, 7-5 win over Weil on #5, Arbuthnott dropped a third-set match tiebreaker to Fortin for UW's only point, and Gordon capped it with a third-set match tiebreaker win of her own for the final score. Cal won doubles and got routine singles wins from Bright at 4 and Brown at 6, while UW had a routine win (Weil over Richardson) at 5 and competitive wins at 1 (Wong won 7-5, 6-2 over Giavara) and 3 (Viller Moeller lost 6-3, 6-3, playing up a line due to Ivanov's absence). It came down to #2, where Rosenqvist beat Fortin 7-5, 6-3 for the match.
WSU: We won a competitive doubles point and then had routine straight-set wins on five courts, with Higuchi's 7-6, 6-2 win over Ates being the closest win, while Shin lost 6-7, 4-6 on Court 5 to Ly-Nguyen. Cal won doubles, got solid wins on 3 and 5 (Anna Bright beat Ly-Nguyen handily), Ates beat Cal's Cami Brown 6-1, 7-5 to make it 3-1 Cal, and then Hannah Viller Moeller clinched Cal's win at #4 before Rosenqvist fell to Sato at 2 and Giavara lost a third-set match tiebreaker to Bayerlova at #1 for the final margin.
Oregon: Stanford lost doubles, which would prove pivotal after Stanford quickly went up 3-1 behind routine wins from Arbuthnott, Blake, and Higuchi. Gordon lost 7-5, 6-3 to Tjen, then Madurawe lost 7-5, 7-6 to Eshet at 5, and a depleted Choy lost 6-4 in the third set to Martinez Moral for the final score. Meanwhile, Cal took the doubles point, Tjen crushed Giavara at 1 (6-1, 6-1), Cal got a couple solid wins from Rosenqvist at 2 and Bright at 5, Oregon beat Bui at 3 and Brown at 6, and the clincher came from Viller Moeller at 4, with a 6-4, 7-6 win over Martinez Moral the clincher.
USC: Stanford won a tight doubles point before quickly getting to 3-0 behind quick wins from Choy at 4 and Higuchi at 5. The rest of the matches were tight, with Blake clinching with a 3-set win, Gordon dropping a third-set match tiebreaker to Ewing, Arbuthnott winning a match tiebreaker of her own, and Houghton winning her third set 7-5 for the 6-1 final margin. Cal won a very tight doubles point before USC's Ewing crushed Giavara 6-2, 6-0. Ivanov was losing at 3 before USC's Cheong got hurt, letting Ivanov take the second set before Cheong retired, making it 2-1 Cal. Bright won handily at 6, and Viller Moeller again got the clincher at 5 with a routine win. They played it out, with Rosenqvist falling in the third set at 2 and USC's Willson beating Bui in a third set match tiebreaker on 4 for the final margin.
Pepperdine: Stanford won a tight doubles point and got routine wins from Gordon over Failla at 1 and Higuchi at 6. Blake lost quickly to Pachkaleva, Arbuthnott the same to Lahey, Geller retired down 7-5, 4-2, and Choy lost to Zaar 7-6 in the third. We were so, so close. In the first matchup, Pepperdine won doubles over Cal and got a routine win at 2 (Pachkaleva over Rosenqvist) while Cal answered at 1 (Giavara beat Failla 6-4, 6-1). The rest of the matches were competitive (Courts 3-5 went to third sets), but Pepperdine won them all. Lahey missed that match, and Failla missed the second one, while Cal was full strength for both. Pepperdine again won doubles, and all the singles matches were competitive. Pepperdine got to 4-0 behind wins at 2 (Pachkaleva again over Rosenqvist), 3 (Fukuda over Ivanov, 6-1 in the third), and 4 (Zaar in straight sets over Bui). Giavara beat Lahey at 1 in three, Bright won at 6 in three, and Viller Moeller got it to 4-3 with a slow-mover at 5, 6-4, 7-6.
I think we're a little better than Cal, I do. If all players were healthy and played to their top level, we'd win. But that's not how tennis works, is it? So let's go line by line in singles, with the understanding that doubles is up for grabs, and assuming everyone is healthy.
1. I give Gordon a slight edge over Giavara, though Giavara did win in three sets in Fall Nationals in 2019. A win either way shouldn't be a surprise.
2. Rosenqvist has an edge over Blake, but not a big one. Should be close.
3. Ivanov vs. Arbuthnott: I'm gonna say a toss-up? (If the lineup switch hadn't happened, I'd have put Blake over Ivanov.)
4. Geller has an edge over Bui.
5. I like this Choy-Viller Moeller matchup. It'll be close.
6. Bright has an edge over Higuchi.
All I know is it'll be close, and it'll decide second place in the conference. I'll take Stanford 5-2.
For the first time that I can remember, and due to the scheduling weirdness covid has created, the ITA is publishing both computer rankings and a coaches' poll in order to give the NCAA more information on how to seed teams for the tournament. (Usually, they only do the computer rankings this late in the season, and the NCAA almost always just defaults to using those for seeding purpose.) For a lot of teams, those numbers closely track: USC was #34 in the computers and #32 in the coaches' poll. But Stanford saw a pretty large split: #38 in the computer rankings and #26 in the coaches' poll.
A look at our opponents this week
Hawaii is 5-5, and we have three opponents in common: USC, UCSB, and UC Davis. We beat both Santa Barbara and Davis by 7-0 scores, while Hawaii lost 5-2 to UCSB and 4-2 to Davis. Hawaii's best player is Petra Melounova, but she hasn't played in the last handful of matches. Hawaii lost 6-1 to USC back in February, which is a better comparison, and back then, Eryn Cayetano beat Melounova 7-6, 7-5 at #1, USC rolled at #2 and #4, won competitive matches at #3 and #6, and it was Texas transfer Bojana Markovic who beat USC's Clare McKee in a third-set match tiebreaker for Hawaii's only point. (McKee is the player who Houghton beat, 3-6, 6-2, 7-5.)
Bottom line: Stanford is a good deal better than Hawaii. There might be some closer matches, but we should get to 4 points pretty quickly while those play out.
Cal is #27 in the computer rankings and #22 in the coaches' poll, and it suffered an ignominious loss of its own, a 4-3 match to CU in Boulder. They pulled off a 4-3 upset over a shorthanded UCLA in non-conference play, but just lost 7-0 to UCLA in what feels like a more accurate reflection of those two teams, with UCLA handily winning each singles match except for Court 5, where UCLA's Goulak beat Cal freshman Hannah Viller Moeller in three sets. (The first of the three matchups this season was a 4-0 UCLA win.)
Cal has made a habit of close matches, beating UW, WSU, Oregon, and USC by 4-3 scores (we beat UW, WSU, and USC by 6-1 scores but lost 4-3 to Oregon). They lost 6-1 to Pepperdine even without Lahey in the lineup, and later lost 4-3 to Pepperdine with Lahey but without Failla in the lineup, while we had a full-strength Pepperdine team on the ropes before dropping a heartbreaker. Let's look at those five matches to see if patterns emerge:
Washington: Stanford won a tight doubles point and clinched the match quickly behind routine wins from Higuchi, Blake, and Geller. Choy made it 5 with a 6-4, 7-5 win over Weil on #5, Arbuthnott dropped a third-set match tiebreaker to Fortin for UW's only point, and Gordon capped it with a third-set match tiebreaker win of her own for the final score. Cal won doubles and got routine singles wins from Bright at 4 and Brown at 6, while UW had a routine win (Weil over Richardson) at 5 and competitive wins at 1 (Wong won 7-5, 6-2 over Giavara) and 3 (Viller Moeller lost 6-3, 6-3, playing up a line due to Ivanov's absence). It came down to #2, where Rosenqvist beat Fortin 7-5, 6-3 for the match.
WSU: We won a competitive doubles point and then had routine straight-set wins on five courts, with Higuchi's 7-6, 6-2 win over Ates being the closest win, while Shin lost 6-7, 4-6 on Court 5 to Ly-Nguyen. Cal won doubles, got solid wins on 3 and 5 (Anna Bright beat Ly-Nguyen handily), Ates beat Cal's Cami Brown 6-1, 7-5 to make it 3-1 Cal, and then Hannah Viller Moeller clinched Cal's win at #4 before Rosenqvist fell to Sato at 2 and Giavara lost a third-set match tiebreaker to Bayerlova at #1 for the final margin.
Oregon: Stanford lost doubles, which would prove pivotal after Stanford quickly went up 3-1 behind routine wins from Arbuthnott, Blake, and Higuchi. Gordon lost 7-5, 6-3 to Tjen, then Madurawe lost 7-5, 7-6 to Eshet at 5, and a depleted Choy lost 6-4 in the third set to Martinez Moral for the final score. Meanwhile, Cal took the doubles point, Tjen crushed Giavara at 1 (6-1, 6-1), Cal got a couple solid wins from Rosenqvist at 2 and Bright at 5, Oregon beat Bui at 3 and Brown at 6, and the clincher came from Viller Moeller at 4, with a 6-4, 7-6 win over Martinez Moral the clincher.
USC: Stanford won a tight doubles point before quickly getting to 3-0 behind quick wins from Choy at 4 and Higuchi at 5. The rest of the matches were tight, with Blake clinching with a 3-set win, Gordon dropping a third-set match tiebreaker to Ewing, Arbuthnott winning a match tiebreaker of her own, and Houghton winning her third set 7-5 for the 6-1 final margin. Cal won a very tight doubles point before USC's Ewing crushed Giavara 6-2, 6-0. Ivanov was losing at 3 before USC's Cheong got hurt, letting Ivanov take the second set before Cheong retired, making it 2-1 Cal. Bright won handily at 6, and Viller Moeller again got the clincher at 5 with a routine win. They played it out, with Rosenqvist falling in the third set at 2 and USC's Willson beating Bui in a third set match tiebreaker on 4 for the final margin.
Pepperdine: Stanford won a tight doubles point and got routine wins from Gordon over Failla at 1 and Higuchi at 6. Blake lost quickly to Pachkaleva, Arbuthnott the same to Lahey, Geller retired down 7-5, 4-2, and Choy lost to Zaar 7-6 in the third. We were so, so close. In the first matchup, Pepperdine won doubles over Cal and got a routine win at 2 (Pachkaleva over Rosenqvist) while Cal answered at 1 (Giavara beat Failla 6-4, 6-1). The rest of the matches were competitive (Courts 3-5 went to third sets), but Pepperdine won them all. Lahey missed that match, and Failla missed the second one, while Cal was full strength for both. Pepperdine again won doubles, and all the singles matches were competitive. Pepperdine got to 4-0 behind wins at 2 (Pachkaleva again over Rosenqvist), 3 (Fukuda over Ivanov, 6-1 in the third), and 4 (Zaar in straight sets over Bui). Giavara beat Lahey at 1 in three, Bright won at 6 in three, and Viller Moeller got it to 4-3 with a slow-mover at 5, 6-4, 7-6.
I think we're a little better than Cal, I do. If all players were healthy and played to their top level, we'd win. But that's not how tennis works, is it? So let's go line by line in singles, with the understanding that doubles is up for grabs, and assuming everyone is healthy.
1. I give Gordon a slight edge over Giavara, though Giavara did win in three sets in Fall Nationals in 2019. A win either way shouldn't be a surprise.
2. Rosenqvist has an edge over Blake, but not a big one. Should be close.
3. Ivanov vs. Arbuthnott: I'm gonna say a toss-up? (If the lineup switch hadn't happened, I'd have put Blake over Ivanov.)
4. Geller has an edge over Bui.
5. I like this Choy-Viller Moeller matchup. It'll be close.
6. Bright has an edge over Higuchi.
All I know is it'll be close, and it'll decide second place in the conference. I'll take Stanford 5-2.