[Mick]

I have a question to y'all... What would be more reckless and/or risky for the Niners?

1. Not trading 3 first round picks and drafting Davis Mills #12.

2. Trading 3 first round picks to draft Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones or Zach Wilson #3.

I don't know what would be more reckless or risky, but I do know that the optics of taking Mills at #12 as the QB of the future would be so unpopular that the Niners couldn't do it even if they wanted to do so. Mills may turn out to be a starting NFL QB, but right now the public perception isn't leaning that way. It would be arguable that the Niners could get him in a later round and "wasting" a #1 pick on speculation is bad business. Going that route just isn't possible.

If you take a player high in the draft who is widely expected to high in the draft, and the player is a bust, the perception will be that it was the player's fault for not living up to the hype.  If you take a player high in the draft above where they were projected, and the player is a bust, the perception is that it will be the GM's fault for mis-evaluating the talent.

You are probably better off trading the 12th pick down and picking Mills lower in the draft.

BC

First year of Lynch Shanahan, they lost their first nine games, but six of those losses were by three points or less.  Garoppolo comes in and wins five straight, he gets a big contract.  Year two, he gets ACL injury, they go 4-12 -- but they still have talent.  Year three, they're in the Super Bowl and come very close to winning it.  Year four, Garoppolo is a gimp and they go 6-10 again.

So they've had three bad years out of four, and yes, Baalke left it a mess and they had bad luck, but now it's year five...and they have six year contracts.  They can't build for the future.  They can't take chances.  They need the most pro-ready QB now, so, they're going to swallow hard and pretend that Mac Jones is Drew Brees.

Welcome to the Mac Jones era. Be interesting to see how Fields and Lance turn out.

[Mick]

I have a question to y'all... What would be more reckless and/or risky for the Niners?

1. Not trading 3 first round picks and drafting Davis Mills #12.

2. Trading 3 first round picks to draft Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones or Zach Wilson #3.

I don't know what would be more reckless or risky, but I do know that the optics of taking Mills at #12 as the QB of the future would be so unpopular that the Niners couldn't do it even if they wanted to do so. Mills may turn out to be a starting NFL QB, but right now the public perception isn't leaning that way. It would be arguable that the Niners could get him in a later round and "wasting" a #1 pick on speculation is bad business. Going that route just isn't possible.

If you take a player high in the draft who is widely expected to high in the draft, and the player is a bust, the perception will be that it was the player's fault for not living up to the hype.  If you take a player high in the draft above where they were projected, and the player is a bust, the perception is that it will be the GM's fault for mis-evaluating the talent.

You are probably better off trading the 12th pick down and picking Mills lower in the draft.

BC

First year of Lynch Shanahan, they lost their first nine games, but six of those losses were by three points or less.  Garoppolo comes in and wins five straight, he gets a big contract.  Year two, he gets ACL injury, they go 4-12 -- but they still have talent.  Year three, they're in the Super Bowl and come very close to winning it.  Year four, Garoppolo is a gimp and they go 6-10 again.

So they've had three bad years out of four, and yes, Baalke left it a mess and they had bad luck, but now it's year five...and they have six year contracts.  They can't build for the future.  They can't take chances.  They need the most pro-ready QB now, so, they're going to swallow hard and pretend that Mac Jones is Drew Brees.

Welcome to the Mac Jones era. Be interesting to see how Fields and Lance turn out.