[Goose]

The existence of a football D league is a probable outcome of this situation eventually. 

I agree pretty much with everything you say, except the above.

Why would you think that an NFL D-League is a probable outcome, particularly if you think federal legislation is NOT going to happen?

Seems to me that the NFL, unless its hand is forced by some federal legislation.  And maybe that legislation is just sanctioning a structure whereby colleges can continue on with current approach such that there is some market for paying kids a something to train in NFL D-League with hopes of making The Big Club.  Regardless, without some push, the NFL will just continue to ride the college football gravy train and let those universities/boosters/sponsors pay that "labor" while they are playing in college.

I agree with you.  The NFL already has a D-league.   It is called the SEC.  Many SEC schools have less in their university endowment than Forbes says their football programs are worth.    I am confident those schools will do a lot to keep their most precious asset viable.

Imagine a D-League with teams Birmingham, Pensacola or Shreveport.   Does anyone really believe those teams would get more in ticket revenue, tv revenue and financial gifts than Bama, Florida or LSU could command?   The State teams, ..err universities, literally represent the people in those states in so many ways.  Therefore those institutions can pull dollars out of the citizens (tickets, tv, gifts, tax dollars, subsidized loans) that small D-league teams would struggle to match. 

All the NFL needs is for some subset of the current D1 schools to allow football to overwhelm whatever value might be possible from seriously continuing their academic pursuits.   We already have that potential in the SEC and to some degree in the ACC and Big12.

I can certainly imagine that places with very significant academic assets and research revenue like Stanford and Northwestern will opt out, but that's quite different than saying every FBS school or their fans will refuse to play the new SCOTUS mandated game.  Oddly, some of the fans in some regions of the USA may take great pride in knowing their State U can outlast states/schools unwilling or unable to pony up.

My belief that in the absence of legislation the NFL will adopt a D league is based on the assertion that some form of chaos will ensue while the colleges try to figure out what they can do and how they can do it. If the chaos is relatively slow motion the NFL may attempt to wait to see what happens, but if any real uncertainty about the future ensues the NFL will chose to act. If college football is going to shrink to the SEC alone, I don't think the NFL is going to like that. Too limited a footprint to attract enough players. We all know how big businesses hate uncertainty. The NFL may also fear some kind of legal contagion spreading to them from the NCAA issues. The may believe a D league will help allow them to continue to be an illegal monopoly with everybody winking at it. They can say they aren't contributing to the chaos. Naturally, I wouldn't be surprised if the NFL doesn't go this way, but I think it more probable than not. It would also give them an opportunity to locate relocation/expansion sites relatively cheaply.

[Goose]

The existence of a football D league is a probable outcome of this situation eventually. 

I agree pretty much with everything you say, except the above.

Why would you think that an NFL D-League is a probable outcome, particularly if you think federal legislation is NOT going to happen?

Seems to me that the NFL, unless its hand is forced by some federal legislation.  And maybe that legislation is just sanctioning a structure whereby colleges can continue on with current approach such that there is some market for paying kids a something to train in NFL D-League with hopes of making The Big Club.  Regardless, without some push, the NFL will just continue to ride the college football gravy train and let those universities/boosters/sponsors pay that "labor" while they are playing in college.

I agree with you.  The NFL already has a D-league.   It is called the SEC.  Many SEC schools have less in their university endowment than Forbes says their football programs are worth.    I am confident those schools will do a lot to keep their most precious asset viable.

Imagine a D-League with teams Birmingham, Pensacola or Shreveport.   Does anyone really believe those teams would get more in ticket revenue, tv revenue and financial gifts than Bama, Florida or LSU could command?   The State teams, ..err universities, literally represent the people in those states in so many ways.  Therefore those institutions can pull dollars out of the citizens (tickets, tv, gifts, tax dollars, subsidized loans) that small D-league teams would struggle to match. 

All the NFL needs is for some subset of the current D1 schools to allow football to overwhelm whatever value might be possible from seriously continuing their academic pursuits.   We already have that potential in the SEC and to some degree in the ACC and Big12.

I can certainly imagine that places with very significant academic assets and research revenue like Stanford and Northwestern will opt out, but that's quite different than saying every FBS school or their fans will refuse to play the new SCOTUS mandated game.  Oddly, some of the fans in some regions of the USA may take great pride in knowing their State U can outlast states/schools unwilling or unable to pony up.

My belief that in the absence of legislation the NFL will adopt a D league is based on the assertion that some form of chaos will ensue while the colleges try to figure out what they can do and how they can do it. If the chaos is relatively slow motion the NFL may attempt to wait to see what happens, but if any real uncertainty about the future ensues the NFL will chose to act. If college football is going to shrink to the SEC alone, I don't think the NFL is going to like that. Too limited a footprint to attract enough players. We all know how big businesses hate uncertainty. The NFL may also fear some kind of legal contagion spreading to them from the NCAA issues. The may believe a D league will help allow them to continue to be an illegal monopoly with everybody winking at it. They can say they aren't contributing to the chaos. Naturally, I wouldn't be surprised if the NFL doesn't go this way, but I think it more probable than not. It would also give them an opportunity to locate relocation/expansion sites relatively cheaply.