[DC 86]

That is, of course, putting a lot of weight on wins.  Bill James has a Cy Young predictor.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung


[*]Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
[*]VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship


Wins * 6 means that wins carry a lot of weight (even though they are only partially under the pitcher's control).  Interesting that losses are de-valued compared to wins, so going 20-8 (.714) is better than going 18-6 (.75), all else being equal.

BC

The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.

[DC 86]

That is, of course, putting a lot of weight on wins.  Bill James has a Cy Young predictor.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung


[*]Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
[*]VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship


Wins * 6 means that wins carry a lot of weight (even though they are only partially under the pitcher's control).  Interesting that losses are de-valued compared to wins, so going 20-8 (.714) is better than going 18-6 (.75), all else being equal.

BC

The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.