[BostonCard]

[*]
The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.

This is a good point, but I am applying it retroactively to the list of pitchers in the HoF who never won a Cy Young.  The Bill James predictor should be better calibrated for them, and as Mick points out, a lot of them were beaten out in their peak year by a pitcher with more wins.

BC

[BostonCard]

[*]
The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.

This is a good point, but I am applying it retroactively to the list of pitchers in the HoF who never won a Cy Young.  The Bill James predictor should be better calibrated for them, and as Mick points out, a lot of them were beaten out in their peak year by a pitcher with more wins.

BC