[Farm93]

The guy paying all Miami Football players if they post about his gym on their social channels provides a counter-factual to the "winner take all" dynamic, that will in general obviously prevail.

Yes and no.   This type of offer to all is something I expect will happen for a small group of programs.    Winner take all, if you will.

I suspect Miami, LSU, Bama, Texas, Oklahoma, tOSU, Florida and others in that group should find their athletes getting very lucrative deals far beyond the value they are really bringing to the businesses in question.  Athletes at most programs will just not have similar opportunities.

The ultimate prize winners will be those in high profile sports, in high profile positions, in high profile programs.    Every football player at a place like LSU might get a few thousand dollars for hashtagging a business, but probably only the QBs and a few other skill position players will get really big money by getting in big time ad campaigns.

Even though the track & field athletes or softball team players at LSU are in championship hunts each year, my guess is they will see very little.  The money might create odd and toxic environments.   It might be possible to see $1,000 per year as "profit" if no one else at the school is making more than $10,000.   A different story if everyone on a softball team is bringing home less than $1,000 per year, while all of the football players are clearing $100,000 (or more), and the starting QB is clearing a few million.

[Farm93]

The guy paying all Miami Football players if they post about his gym on their social channels provides a counter-factual to the "winner take all" dynamic, that will in general obviously prevail.

Yes and no.   This type of offer to all is something I expect will happen for a small group of programs.    Winner take all, if you will.

I suspect Miami, LSU, Bama, Texas, Oklahoma, tOSU, Florida and others in that group should find their athletes getting very lucrative deals far beyond the value they are really bringing to the businesses in question.  Athletes at most programs will just not have similar opportunities.

The ultimate prize winners will be those in high profile sports, in high profile positions, in high profile programs.    Every football player at a place like LSU might get a few thousand dollars for hashtagging a business, but probably only the QBs and a few other skill position players will get really big money by getting in big time ad campaigns.

Even though the track & field athletes or softball team players at LSU are in championship hunts each year, my guess is they will see very little.  The money might create odd and toxic environments.   It might be possible to see $1,000 per year as "profit" if no one else at the school is making more than $10,000.   A different story if everyone on a softball team is bringing home less than $1,000 per year, while all of the football players are clearing $100,000 (or more), and the starting QB is clearing a few million.