A few comments on topics in this thread:
As far as I can tell, the Stanford internet-board fan base, seems to have the least pro home team bias I have seen. I don't think you'd find many other fan bases cumulatively predicting even up chances for a game where the something like ESPN FPI predicts that home team to be the favourite.
[Note - home team to the fan base, not home for a particular game.]
This year far more than most, there is little basis for making any prediction at all. Last year is pretty much useless for projecting forward. Two years ago is far too long. There are still uneven levels of response to the pandemic that makes it hard to understand a given team's situation. Thus at this point any predictions for success or failure of our team are more Rohrschach tests for the predictor's personality than anything about the team.
Whether you call it Shawball or not, the current default mode for the Stanford offense appears to be to run the ball rarely relative to other teams. Over the past four years, Stanford has been #10, #11, #11, and #9 in the conference in rushing attempts per game. It would be logical for any coach with an uncertain QB situation to try to throw less, but I wonder whether that is really what we will see or not. If the run game is successful from the opening gun, then we'll likely keep at it. If it struggles initially, I suspect we'll go all pass - which scares me.
Shaw's history of QB selection is more complicated than simply favoring the older guy, though in the end he has repeatedly started seasons with an older guy and switched to the younger guy midway: 20212 Hogan took over from Nunes, 2016 Chryst from Burns, 2017 Costello from Chryst, 2019 Mills from Costello. The situation now seems closer to 2012 than any of the others.
As to my own Rohrschach test, I'm a worrier ...
The early start and travel conditions lead Stanford to perform very poorly consistent with a long history of that sort of thing.
Stanford 16, KSU 27
A very grumpy board Saturday afternoon.
[By the way, is there an official prediction contest this year, or just a thread for our amusement?]
As far as I can tell, the Stanford internet-board fan base, seems to have the least pro home team bias I have seen. I don't think you'd find many other fan bases cumulatively predicting even up chances for a game where the something like ESPN FPI predicts that home team to be the favourite.
[Note - home team to the fan base, not home for a particular game.]
This year far more than most, there is little basis for making any prediction at all. Last year is pretty much useless for projecting forward. Two years ago is far too long. There are still uneven levels of response to the pandemic that makes it hard to understand a given team's situation. Thus at this point any predictions for success or failure of our team are more Rohrschach tests for the predictor's personality than anything about the team.
Whether you call it Shawball or not, the current default mode for the Stanford offense appears to be to run the ball rarely relative to other teams. Over the past four years, Stanford has been #10, #11, #11, and #9 in the conference in rushing attempts per game. It would be logical for any coach with an uncertain QB situation to try to throw less, but I wonder whether that is really what we will see or not. If the run game is successful from the opening gun, then we'll likely keep at it. If it struggles initially, I suspect we'll go all pass - which scares me.
Shaw's history of QB selection is more complicated than simply favoring the older guy, though in the end he has repeatedly started seasons with an older guy and switched to the younger guy midway: 20212 Hogan took over from Nunes, 2016 Chryst from Burns, 2017 Costello from Chryst, 2019 Mills from Costello. The situation now seems closer to 2012 than any of the others.
As to my own Rohrschach test, I'm a worrier ...
The early start and travel conditions lead Stanford to perform very poorly consistent with a long history of that sort of thing.
Stanford 16, KSU 27
A very grumpy board Saturday afternoon.
[By the way, is there an official prediction contest this year, or just a thread for our amusement?]