[CardinalSagehen]

We finally come home, but face the two remaining ranked teams in the PAC-12, #24 UCLA and #3 Oregon, followed by a trip to ASU, who is in the others receiving votes (#31 by that metric) category.

We’ve already played #25 Kansas State and USC (who had been ranked at the time, but would now be #33).

Fwiw, we are also “receiving votes” and would be #42.

If we can somehow go 1-2 and end 3-3, that would be a major upside surprise.  2-4 with a lot of grumpy cardboarders is my expectation.

BC

Your forecast is less controversial to me now that we know how many injury problems we have, particularly in our secondary.  But to me, the probabilities don't support it.

"A major upside surprise" suggests maybe a 30% chance of winning 1 game.  This would correspond roughly to a 5% chance of winning vs. Oregon and a 15% chance vs. UCLA and ASU.  (1 - (0.95 x 0.85 x 0.85) = 31%)  Don't those odds strike you as overly pessimistic, especially here in the "Conference of Parity"?

Even if you assumed we had just a 10% chance of beating Oregon and a 25% chance of beating UCLA and ASU, that would give us roughly 50/50 odds of winning one game.

I think our odds are considerably better than that.  1-2 is the most likely outcome, but 2-1 wouldn't surprise me more than 0-3.  I hope I don't regret these words in 3 weeks!

I will leave you with this.  UCLA Fan does not expect to beat us.  Not at all.  They have been properly conditioned by going 1-11 against us.

[CardinalSagehen]

We finally come home, but face the two remaining ranked teams in the PAC-12, #24 UCLA and #3 Oregon, followed by a trip to ASU, who is in the others receiving votes (#31 by that metric) category.

We’ve already played #25 Kansas State and USC (who had been ranked at the time, but would now be #33).

Fwiw, we are also “receiving votes” and would be #42.

If we can somehow go 1-2 and end 3-3, that would be a major upside surprise.  2-4 with a lot of grumpy cardboarders is my expectation.

BC

Your forecast is less controversial to me now that we know how many injury problems we have, particularly in our secondary.  But to me, the probabilities don't support it.

"A major upside surprise" suggests maybe a 30% chance of winning 1 game.  This would correspond roughly to a 5% chance of winning vs. Oregon and a 15% chance vs. UCLA and ASU.  (1 - (0.95 x 0.85 x 0.85) = 31%)  Don't those odds strike you as overly pessimistic, especially here in the "Conference of Parity"?

Even if you assumed we had just a 10% chance of beating Oregon and a 25% chance of beating UCLA and ASU, that would give us roughly 50/50 odds of winning one game.

I think our odds are considerably better than that.  1-2 is the most likely outcome, but 2-1 wouldn't surprise me more than 0-3.  I hope I don't regret these words in 3 weeks!

I will leave you with this.  UCLA Fan does not expect to beat us.  Not at all.  They have been properly conditioned by going 1-11 against us.