[Austroturf]

I am convinced our success rate over the next three games wholly depends on which players are healthy and available.  Frankly, on any given day, I believe the current incarnation of Stanford football could beat any team in the Pac-12, even Oregon (particularly since we play them in Palo Alto).  But both the offensive and defensive backfields are threadbare due to injury, and if those players do not return soon and a few more join their ranks, the next three games could get ugly.  

From today's perspective, I am joining the 1-2 camp, but would be happy to see 2-1.  If the team can retain some modicum of health, I could see 7-5 or 6-6 as possible outcomes, with potential wins over Oregon State, Wazzu, Cal, Washington and one of the next three.  They could also beat Utah, which has looked shaky in recent games.  

The current ESPN match-up predictor has us favored against Wazzu, Cal, Washington and Utah, which would point to a 6-6 finish.

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The same ESPN that gives Stanford 45% vs UCLA gives win probabilities of 25% vs Oregon and 40% vs ASU.

That results in a 75% chance of winning at least one game and a 25% chance of going winless in all three.

Actually, it's an 18.5% chance of 0-3, 49.5% of 1-2, 27.5% of 2-1, and 4.5% of 3-0 based on those probabilities.

Given the injuries, I think 45% is too high. I think the only way Stanford wins tomorrow is in a track meet.

Agree.  We only win if McKee lights up the Bruin secondary and throws for four or five TDs.  If we can't score early and often, we will lose.

[Austroturf]

I am convinced our success rate over the next three games wholly depends on which players are healthy and available.  Frankly, on any given day, I believe the current incarnation of Stanford football could beat any team in the Pac-12, even Oregon (particularly since we play them in Palo Alto).  But both the offensive and defensive backfields are threadbare due to injury, and if those players do not return soon and a few more join their ranks, the next three games could get ugly.  

From today's perspective, I am joining the 1-2 camp, but would be happy to see 2-1.  If the team can retain some modicum of health, I could see 7-5 or 6-6 as possible outcomes, with potential wins over Oregon State, Wazzu, Cal, Washington and one of the next three.  They could also beat Utah, which has looked shaky in recent games.  

The current ESPN match-up predictor has us favored against Wazzu, Cal, Washington and Utah, which would point to a 6-6 finish.

---

The same ESPN that gives Stanford 45% vs UCLA gives win probabilities of 25% vs Oregon and 40% vs ASU.

That results in a 75% chance of winning at least one game and a 25% chance of going winless in all three.

Actually, it's an 18.5% chance of 0-3, 49.5% of 1-2, 27.5% of 2-1, and 4.5% of 3-0 based on those probabilities.

Given the injuries, I think 45% is too high. I think the only way Stanford wins tomorrow is in a track meet.

Agree.  We only win if McKee lights up the Bruin secondary and throws for four or five TDs.  If we can't score early and often, we will lose.