[winflop]

The same ESPN that gives Stanford 45% vs UCLA gives win probabilities of 25% vs Oregon and 40% vs ASU.

That results in a 75% chance of winning at least one game and a 25% chance of going winless in all three.

Actually, it's an 18.5% chance of 0-3, 49.5% of 1-2, 27.5% of 2-1, and 4.5% of 3-0 based on those probabilities.

Given the injuries, I think 45% is too high. I think the only way Stanford wins tomorrow is in a track meet.

Well, we have won track meets with them in three out of the last four years, so that seems to be the norm.

True, but this track meet may be a bit more challenging because with only one RB it's going to fall to McKee to move the ball with his arm, whereas in the past the attack has had more options.

[winflop]

The same ESPN that gives Stanford 45% vs UCLA gives win probabilities of 25% vs Oregon and 40% vs ASU.

That results in a 75% chance of winning at least one game and a 25% chance of going winless in all three.

Actually, it's an 18.5% chance of 0-3, 49.5% of 1-2, 27.5% of 2-1, and 4.5% of 3-0 based on those probabilities.

Given the injuries, I think 45% is too high. I think the only way Stanford wins tomorrow is in a track meet.

Well, we have won track meets with them in three out of the last four years, so that seems to be the norm.

True, but this track meet may be a bit more challenging because with only one RB it's going to fall to McKee to move the ball with his arm, whereas in the past the attack has had more options.