[CardinalSagehen]

Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2.  But maybe I'm mistaken.  Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season.  Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against".  We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected.  So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.



Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):

Cal (79%)

@WSU (66%)

UW (57%)

Utah (53%)

ND (40%)

@OSU (37%)

ASU (27%)



If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%.  There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight.  There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games.  I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much.  I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.



BC

FPI's current prediction for us is 6.7-5.5.  (The footnote says W-L "... may not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation."  Conference championship game, anyone?)  FPI currently gives us an 82% chance of winning 6 games, a 15% chance of winning the North, and a 6% chance of winning the Conference.  But FPI currently ranks us 8th in the Pac-12, behind teams like USC, Utah, and UW.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/9

I feel we're being disrespected by FPI, to the extent that an algorithm can be disrespectful.  The fact that we have a money QB that is cool in the pocket is an enormous X Factor. Barring injuries in the trenches or to McKee, I see 7-8 wins for us now.

[CardinalSagehen]

Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2.  But maybe I'm mistaken.  Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season.  Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against".  We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected.  So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.



Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):

Cal (79%)

@WSU (66%)

UW (57%)

Utah (53%)

ND (40%)

@OSU (37%)

ASU (27%)



If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%.  There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight.  There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games.  I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much.  I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.



BC

FPI's current prediction for us is 6.7-5.5.  (The footnote says W-L "... may not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation."  Conference championship game, anyone?)  FPI currently gives us an 82% chance of winning 6 games, a 15% chance of winning the North, and a 6% chance of winning the Conference.  But FPI currently ranks us 8th in the Pac-12, behind teams like USC, Utah, and UW.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/9

I feel we're being disrespected by FPI, to the extent that an algorithm can be disrespectful.  The fact that we have a money QB that is cool in the pocket is an enormous X Factor. Barring injuries in the trenches or to McKee, I see 7-8 wins for us now.