[BostonCard]

Let’s start with the fact that to be as bad as we were, there likely had to be both recruiting and development problems, with an additional sprinkling of bad luck and some structural changes in college football to boot.  This isn’t an either/or situation.

However, Sam and others are right.  Recruiting rankings don’t tell the story; we were having discussions four years ago about the red lights that were flashing on the recruiting side.  We knew that we were leaving scholarships unfilled three and four years ago… those are players who would have been juniors and seniors and thus a the peek of their contribution, that are instead going to be underdeveloped freshmen and sophomores.  I’m more sanguine than most here about the prospects in 2023 and 2024 (if we have a qb), but recruiting mistakes made three and four years ago are having their peek impact now.

As Sam mentioned, we played with zero senior/5th year offensive linemen this year. Let’s look at why.  In 2017, we signed three offensive linemen (Little, Sarrell, and Dalman).  All of them are gone (to the NFL, so not for bad reasons), but three is in the low end of how many OL you’d want to have in a class.  So, you would have wanted to follow that up with a jumbo OL class of around five.  We signed one O-lineman, Trey Stratford, who didn’t work out.  So, we have a line that relied on sophomores and juniors, but because of the pandemic, they are more like freshmen and sophomores.  Is it any wonder that they struggled?

Now, let’s look at defensive linemen.  We have two D-linemen in the 2017 recruiting class (DWP and Ryan Johnson), which, again, is fine but on the smallish side (you want to average out to about 5 every two years).  The next year, just Booker, on a year where you would have wanted three.  The next, Pekola, who is not with the team, and maybe Herron.  But if you are going to recruit an undersized lineman that you hope fills out, then you have to account for the possibility that they don’t and have to play linebacker.  In other words, you do it if you have at least two solid DLs, but not as your second defensive lineman, a year after you only took one.  So, now we are looking at three experienced linemen leaving, nobody left in the class behind them, and then you repeat the error by taking one true lineman (Philips) and one undersized edge player (Keneley).  The defensive line situation even if you call Keneley  and Herron as defensive linemen was bad (five over three years, when you should have eight); with Herron and Keneley pushed to LB, it is a disaster.

There are 85 scholarship spots.  You can get 10 offensive and 10 defensive players a year and have five scholarships left over (a little more if there is some attrition) for fifth years and specialists.  So, every year should be like 2022, where you recruit a full class (which would have been close to the platonic ideal had Ramsey not left).  But making allowances for the fact that sometimes you wind up a bit short, you have to come back the next year and recruit more players at that position group.

One year under recruiting players at a position is bad but recoverable.  Doing so in two consecutive years is malpractice.  The problem is that the team doesn’t feel it immediately; the effects are felt three years down the line.  Which is why Sam has already identified the spots that are going to be problematic in 2023/24: ILB (though we might be ok if we switch to a 4-3, impending trouble at that position and at NT might have been a contributor to the switch), and WR.  We should get two solid MLB next year and three good wide receivers.

BC

[BostonCard]

Let’s start with the fact that to be as bad as we were, there likely had to be both recruiting and development problems, with an additional sprinkling of bad luck and some structural changes in college football to boot.  This isn’t an either/or situation.

However, Sam and others are right.  Recruiting rankings don’t tell the story; we were having discussions four years ago about the red lights that were flashing on the recruiting side.  We knew that we were leaving scholarships unfilled three and four years ago… those are players who would have been juniors and seniors and thus a the peek of their contribution, that are instead going to be underdeveloped freshmen and sophomores.  I’m more sanguine than most here about the prospects in 2023 and 2024 (if we have a qb), but recruiting mistakes made three and four years ago are having their peek impact now.

As Sam mentioned, we played with zero senior/5th year offensive linemen this year. Let’s look at why.  In 2017, we signed three offensive linemen (Little, Sarrell, and Dalman).  All of them are gone (to the NFL, so not for bad reasons), but three is in the low end of how many OL you’d want to have in a class.  So, you would have wanted to follow that up with a jumbo OL class of around five.  We signed one O-lineman, Trey Stratford, who didn’t work out.  So, we have a line that relied on sophomores and juniors, but because of the pandemic, they are more like freshmen and sophomores.  Is it any wonder that they struggled?

Now, let’s look at defensive linemen.  We have two D-linemen in the 2017 recruiting class (DWP and Ryan Johnson), which, again, is fine but on the smallish side (you want to average out to about 5 every two years).  The next year, just Booker, on a year where you would have wanted three.  The next, Pekola, who is not with the team, and maybe Herron.  But if you are going to recruit an undersized lineman that you hope fills out, then you have to account for the possibility that they don’t and have to play linebacker.  In other words, you do it if you have at least two solid DLs, but not as your second defensive lineman, a year after you only took one.  So, now we are looking at three experienced linemen leaving, nobody left in the class behind them, and then you repeat the error by taking one true lineman (Philips) and one undersized edge player (Keneley).  The defensive line situation even if you call Keneley  and Herron as defensive linemen was bad (five over three years, when you should have eight); with Herron and Keneley pushed to LB, it is a disaster.

There are 85 scholarship spots.  You can get 10 offensive and 10 defensive players a year and have five scholarships left over (a little more if there is some attrition) for fifth years and specialists.  So, every year should be like 2022, where you recruit a full class (which would have been close to the platonic ideal had Ramsey not left).  But making allowances for the fact that sometimes you wind up a bit short, you have to come back the next year and recruit more players at that position group.

One year under recruiting players at a position is bad but recoverable.  Doing so in two consecutive years is malpractice.  The problem is that the team doesn’t feel it immediately; the effects are felt three years down the line.  Which is why Sam has already identified the spots that are going to be problematic in 2023/24: ILB (though we might be ok if we switch to a 4-3, impending trouble at that position and at NT might have been a contributor to the switch), and WR.  We should get two solid MLB next year and three good wide receivers.

BC