[SamuelMcF]

This raises an interesting question: How many spots do we project in the ‘23 class?  Due to COVID redshirting rules, this coming year, Stanford could have 85 scholarship players, none of them running out of eligibility in 2022. I assume there won’t be any 6th year players and not too many 5th year players returning in 2023, but isn’t ‘23 going to be a relatively small class?

I think there will be 82 players with eligibility remaining after next year, but 22 academic seniors, I think.  So depending on how many fifth years come back, it could range between 3 and 25 players.  I think there are a fair number of seniors next year who will be starters or play positions of need, so it juggling the returners will be key.  If I had to guess, I would peg the class at somewhere in between, maybe 10 players invited back, though I expect some will elect to move on.  I think Kelly is the only guy I see drafted to the NFL, but I could see a few forgoing their extra year of eligibility and trying to make it as UDFA or will move onto the next phase in their life (plus the usual one or two players who are the victims of attrition for other reasons).  So, I would peg the class at around 18 to 20.  Thus, a slightly smaller than average class, but hopefully not the 15 player disasters we have seen in the past.

BC

+1. I think the lesson has been learned on the small class size front, especially with 2017 and 2018 being BACK TO BACK 16 and 15 player classes (including returning LDS players and excluding departing LDS players)...which was a disaster. I had been adamant for years that the 2018 class in particular was going to be so much worse than it looked for roster construction reasons, and I'm not happy to have been right. If you have a small class, it has to be sandwiched between bigger classes. And it should never have just one player at a position where we play 5. Ever. (2021, while subpar by our standards, had 17 players and checked both those boxes, although just one low-rated WR will prove a bit concerning.)

Note that non- or barely-contributors (who have all graduated, of course) are being pushed out the door to make room for 2022s. Good. We want that to continue further with next year's non-contributors to make room for more 23s. A freshman unknown is better than a known steak-eater, and I believe this is the beginning of a late adjustment to the new reality that most guys don't stick around for a 5th year anymore. Just another in a long line of multiple-years-too-late adjustments. 

Also note there is some super weird eligibility/Covid math going on that's going to affect the team in a massive way in a couple years - if my spreadsheet is right, we have 33!!! players across 3 different academic classes whose eligibility ends after the 2024 season (though many of those may leave earlier due to senior non-contribution, NFL declaration, etc). IMO the NCAA clamping straight back down to 85 scholarships after this past season is going to cause (and is already causing) a massive spike in trickle-down portal entries, which will result in hundreds of players either dropping down a level further than expected or even getting screwed out of a scholarship completely. If I'm Ryan Johnson, I'm thanking my lucky stars a bunch of G5s are offering me a scholarship given how much of a bloodbath it is out there right now. If I recall, there are over 1000 players in the portal already and it's not even the new year yet.

[SamuelMcF]

This raises an interesting question: How many spots do we project in the ‘23 class?  Due to COVID redshirting rules, this coming year, Stanford could have 85 scholarship players, none of them running out of eligibility in 2022. I assume there won’t be any 6th year players and not too many 5th year players returning in 2023, but isn’t ‘23 going to be a relatively small class?

I think there will be 82 players with eligibility remaining after next year, but 22 academic seniors, I think.  So depending on how many fifth years come back, it could range between 3 and 25 players.  I think there are a fair number of seniors next year who will be starters or play positions of need, so it juggling the returners will be key.  If I had to guess, I would peg the class at somewhere in between, maybe 10 players invited back, though I expect some will elect to move on.  I think Kelly is the only guy I see drafted to the NFL, but I could see a few forgoing their extra year of eligibility and trying to make it as UDFA or will move onto the next phase in their life (plus the usual one or two players who are the victims of attrition for other reasons).  So, I would peg the class at around 18 to 20.  Thus, a slightly smaller than average class, but hopefully not the 15 player disasters we have seen in the past.

BC

+1. I think the lesson has been learned on the small class size front, especially with 2017 and 2018 being BACK TO BACK 16 and 15 player classes (including returning LDS players and excluding departing LDS players)...which was a disaster. I had been adamant for years that the 2018 class in particular was going to be so much worse than it looked for roster construction reasons, and I'm not happy to have been right. If you have a small class, it has to be sandwiched between bigger classes. And it should never have just one player at a position where we play 5. Ever. (2021, while subpar by our standards, had 17 players and checked both those boxes, although just one low-rated WR will prove a bit concerning.)

Note that non- or barely-contributors (who have all graduated, of course) are being pushed out the door to make room for 2022s. Good. We want that to continue further with next year's non-contributors to make room for more 23s. A freshman unknown is better than a known steak-eater, and I believe this is the beginning of a late adjustment to the new reality that most guys don't stick around for a 5th year anymore. Just another in a long line of multiple-years-too-late adjustments. 

Also note there is some super weird eligibility/Covid math going on that's going to affect the team in a massive way in a couple years - if my spreadsheet is right, we have 33!!! players across 3 different academic classes whose eligibility ends after the 2024 season (though many of those may leave earlier due to senior non-contribution, NFL declaration, etc). IMO the NCAA clamping straight back down to 85 scholarships after this past season is going to cause (and is already causing) a massive spike in trickle-down portal entries, which will result in hundreds of players either dropping down a level further than expected or even getting screwed out of a scholarship completely. If I'm Ryan Johnson, I'm thanking my lucky stars a bunch of G5s are offering me a scholarship given how much of a bloodbath it is out there right now. If I recall, there are over 1000 players in the portal already and it's not even the new year yet.