[SamuelMcF]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.

[SamuelMcF]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.