[SamuelMcF]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.

Excellent work Sam. Not sure where you can slot Aybar into your chart but he is one of Stanford's more highly rated recruits.
Prior to 2022 Stanford held onto the fiction that they had a chance with the mega whales and essentially reserved spots for them. Of course they did not commit and Stanford was always playing catch up later in the process with more attainable prospects.
Stanford now is getting the message even at the QB position. They had four offers out besides Daniels who they ultimately settled on. I would like to see a couple more '23 QB offers with the idea of getting a commitment in March or April.

This list has nothing to do with recruit ratings, only to do with the order in which they were offered. Aybar was technically the very last offer for '21 (and was on the later side for '22 before reclassifying).

I believe the initial '22 QB offer flurry had much more to do with us not being able to see any of them in person, and their subsequent commitments elsewhere more to do with not being able to visit Stanford in person (until Daniels visited over the summer), or in MJ Morris' case no longer being a "take" anywhere besides NC State where he committed. 
You'll note that 3 of the 4 pre-Daniels offers started out as bonafide whales or 4* prospects, then slipped in the rankings over time until ending up as barely-4* or high 3* guys. That's because all evaluators could go on was limited tape until senior seasons and summer camps were a go. (The exception, AJ Duffy, moved to Florida and is "the guy" FSU is rebuilding around under the new staff. They didn't take a QB in '21 and their '20 QB sucks.)

All this is to say I don't expect multiple simultaneous QB offers anymore as 2022 hopefully proves to be a Covid-related anomaly. If Arnold proves not to have much traction (personally I believe he does as Pritchard had many next-offer options and visited Arnold's HS a couple weeks ago), I would expect just one at a time.

[SamuelMcF]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.

Excellent work Sam. Not sure where you can slot Aybar into your chart but he is one of Stanford's more highly rated recruits.
Prior to 2022 Stanford held onto the fiction that they had a chance with the mega whales and essentially reserved spots for them. Of course they did not commit and Stanford was always playing catch up later in the process with more attainable prospects.
Stanford now is getting the message even at the QB position. They had four offers out besides Daniels who they ultimately settled on. I would like to see a couple more '23 QB offers with the idea of getting a commitment in March or April.

This list has nothing to do with recruit ratings, only to do with the order in which they were offered. Aybar was technically the very last offer for '21 (and was on the later side for '22 before reclassifying).

I believe the initial '22 QB offer flurry had much more to do with us not being able to see any of them in person, and their subsequent commitments elsewhere more to do with not being able to visit Stanford in person (until Daniels visited over the summer), or in MJ Morris' case no longer being a "take" anywhere besides NC State where he committed. 
You'll note that 3 of the 4 pre-Daniels offers started out as bonafide whales or 4* prospects, then slipped in the rankings over time until ending up as barely-4* or high 3* guys. That's because all evaluators could go on was limited tape until senior seasons and summer camps were a go. (The exception, AJ Duffy, moved to Florida and is "the guy" FSU is rebuilding around under the new staff. They didn't take a QB in '21 and their '20 QB sucks.)

All this is to say I don't expect multiple simultaneous QB offers anymore as 2022 hopefully proves to be a Covid-related anomaly. If Arnold proves not to have much traction (personally I believe he does as Pritchard had many next-offer options and visited Arnold's HS a couple weeks ago), I would expect just one at a time.