[slide]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.

Excellent work Sam. Not sure where you can slot Aybar into your chart but he is one of Stanford's more highly rated recruits.
Prior to 2022 Stanford held onto the fiction that they had a chance with the mega whales and essentially reserved spots for them. Of course they did not commit and Stanford was always playing catch up later in the process with more attainable prospects.
Stanford now is getting the message even at the QB position. They had four offers out besides Daniels who they ultimately settled on. I would like to see a couple more '23 QB offers with the idea of getting a commitment in March or April.

McKenwood -- agreed on your comments on Sam's table too.

all schools are allotted 56 OVs and each recruit 5 OVs.  in a big year, Shaw may use 30 OVs, with most used at the official s'mores/bonding weekend post-first LOI day.  good for the signees, but really no bump in recruiting.  so why not spend the unused ones (and the unused ones don't carry forward) and try to land whales?  the campus is like no other, the same is true with professors and the team/coaches seemingly sell very well at home.  granted not high odds, but if you can get whales to give up an OV, it is worth the chance and spring is early enough to develop some traction.  

Ashton Daniels and MJ Morris faced off against each other in the high school semifinals. Daniels was the better QB -- better decision-maker, more efficient, avoided negative plays etc.  it also helps Buford was a lot better than Carrollton.  21-6, but not really that close.

[slide]

Re slide's final point:

Our earliest offers overwhelmingly tend to be mega-whales that everyone in the country is prioritizing, and hence are usually never in play later on in the process unless they really care about academics or have a Stanford connection. For a few we'll be in a top X list, but by the end they almost always sign with a football factory. I don’t have info on top X lists but I do keep a sheet of commitments. I will start in 2018, when the Early Signing Period began, and assume 2022 is done.

# of commits within the first 30 offers by class:
2018: 4 (#1 West, #19 Woods, #27 Umerah, #29 Wilson). Offer #30 was given in March, later than any subsequent class. There were just 51 offers total. (And West should never have been offered that insanely early…or at all.)
2019: 5 (#20 Herron, #21 Pakola, #23 McGill, #26 Bowman, #29 Bragg). Offer #30 was given in January.
2020: 6 (#3 Hinton, #11 B. Jones, #12 Humphreys, #17 Farrell, #24 Ungar, #30 Starr). Offer #30 was given in December.
2021: 3 (#23 Armitage, #26 Wyrick, #28 Slocum). Offer #30 was given in February.
2022: 7 (#4 Bailey, #8 Roush, #12 Cooper, #17 Swanson, #26 Harris, #27 Tafiti, #30 Thompson). Offer #30 was given in August.
2023: 1 so far (#22 Platt). Offer #30 was given in September.

You’ll note a correlation: the earlier offer #30 went out, the more early offers converted to commits. Purely based on this, I’d expect that number to be 6-7 again in ’23. I can see a path to that number for sure but it’s way too early to predict anything. Platt was a good start.

Excellent work Sam. Not sure where you can slot Aybar into your chart but he is one of Stanford's more highly rated recruits.
Prior to 2022 Stanford held onto the fiction that they had a chance with the mega whales and essentially reserved spots for them. Of course they did not commit and Stanford was always playing catch up later in the process with more attainable prospects.
Stanford now is getting the message even at the QB position. They had four offers out besides Daniels who they ultimately settled on. I would like to see a couple more '23 QB offers with the idea of getting a commitment in March or April.

McKenwood -- agreed on your comments on Sam's table too.

all schools are allotted 56 OVs and each recruit 5 OVs.  in a big year, Shaw may use 30 OVs, with most used at the official s'mores/bonding weekend post-first LOI day.  good for the signees, but really no bump in recruiting.  so why not spend the unused ones (and the unused ones don't carry forward) and try to land whales?  the campus is like no other, the same is true with professors and the team/coaches seemingly sell very well at home.  granted not high odds, but if you can get whales to give up an OV, it is worth the chance and spring is early enough to develop some traction.  

Ashton Daniels and MJ Morris faced off against each other in the high school semifinals. Daniels was the better QB -- better decision-maker, more efficient, avoided negative plays etc.  it also helps Buford was a lot better than Carrollton.  21-6, but not really that close.