[winflop]

Peak infection rate in Contra Costa last year was around 750 a day (seven day average), that was about a year ago. Right now, the infection rate is over 1400 a day rolling average. The last couple of days there have been over 2000 positives a day, shattering records. West County schools have shuttered for a few days. . . .Ooof.

Like it or not, Stanford seems somewhat prudent at this point.

A classic example of "how to lie with statistics"

The number of positives is driven by two factors:
- Number of tests
- Positive test rate

We are testing way, way, way more now than a year ago, so even if PTR is the same, the number of positive results will rise significantly. I'll also argue that positive test results and rates are pretty meaningless when:
- the substantial majority of the Bay Area population is vaccinated
- the hospitalization (and death) rates for the vaccinated for omicron are at worst comparable to seasonal flu
- Bay Area hospitals are NOT reporting a swell in COVID-driven hospitalizations. Also, many of their "COVID hospitalizations" are from people who go to the hospital for another reason and then subsequently test positive for COVID. Those shouldn't be counted, and historically they have been

[winflop]

Peak infection rate in Contra Costa last year was around 750 a day (seven day average), that was about a year ago. Right now, the infection rate is over 1400 a day rolling average. The last couple of days there have been over 2000 positives a day, shattering records. West County schools have shuttered for a few days. . . .Ooof.

Like it or not, Stanford seems somewhat prudent at this point.

A classic example of "how to lie with statistics"

The number of positives is driven by two factors:
- Number of tests
- Positive test rate

We are testing way, way, way more now than a year ago, so even if PTR is the same, the number of positive results will rise significantly. I'll also argue that positive test results and rates are pretty meaningless when:
- the substantial majority of the Bay Area population is vaccinated
- the hospitalization (and death) rates for the vaccinated for omicron are at worst comparable to seasonal flu
- Bay Area hospitals are NOT reporting a swell in COVID-driven hospitalizations. Also, many of their "COVID hospitalizations" are from people who go to the hospital for another reason and then subsequently test positive for COVID. Those shouldn't be counted, and historically they have been