01-25-2022, 03:50 PM
Thinking about the lineup implications of Gordon bowing out, and while it obviously hurts our chances somewhat, it's not fatal to the team's chances this year. Bottom line, even if she were healthy, I probably put Ma ahead of her--Ma is just that good. And maybe Yepifanova, too. So, we're really arguing about the differences between the following lineups:
1. Ma
2. Yepifanova
3. Gordon
4. Blake
5. Xu
6. Geller
-OR-
1. Ma
2. Yepifanova
3. Blake
4. Xu
5. Geller
6. Houghton/Choy
We're far stronger at 1-2 than we were last year. Yepifanova is going to have a significantly higher winning percentage at that line than Arbuthnott did, and as good as she was, Gordon was far from an automatic win. Gordon went 10-7 at the top line last year, and I'd be willing to bet a modest sum that Ma beats that percentage. Gordon at 3, though? That's darn near automatic, except for when we play teams like UNC that have a group of 3-4 players that all could plausibly play 1 for them. Blake at 4 is similarly automatic, Xu would clean up at 5, and Geller would make a mockery of 6. That's the kind of depth that wins you national championships.
But let's look at what we do have. Blake at 3 is still pretty deadly (she lost one match at #3 last year, to Pachkaleva of Pepperdine, who is currently ranked #18 in the country after a stellar fall season). At #2 last year, she beat now-#1-in-the-whole-country Eryn Cayetano of USC in three sets, lost to UCLA super-senior Jada Hart, and took top 10 player Jessica Failla of Pepperdine to three sets at NCAAs. I would certainly enjoy the luxury of playing her at #4, but even at #3 she'll be heavily favored against most of her opponents. Xu at 4 will be favored against most, and if she plays like she can, she could become just as automatic at 4 as I expect Blake will be at 3. Geller at 5 should be near-automatic if that's where she lands. And whether it's Choy or Houghton at 6, I would frankly expect them to win every single time out.
We're still deeper than nearly anyone in the country. Maybe we're closer to "incredibly impressive depth" on the dial now, when we would've been at "ludicrous depth" before, but it's still going to be hard for most teams to match up with us.
FYI, #9 Cal knocked off #2 Pepperdine 4-3 in Malibu over the weekend. Pachkaleva didn't play for Pepperdine (unclear why), but after Pepperdine won doubles handily, here's how singles went:
1. #31 Fukuda (Pepp) def. Giavara (Cal) 6-1, 5-7, 7-5
2. #10 Zaar (Pepp) def. #108 Ivanov (Cal) 6-2, 6-2
3. #110 Alsola (Cal) def. #30 Flores (Pepp) 6-3, 7-6
4. Rosenqvist (Cal) def. #93 Tjen (Pepp) 6-2, 6-3 (surprisingly poor showing from the preseason #3 player in the country in Tjen)
5. Wiersholm (Cal) def. Redelijk (Pepp) 7-5, 7-5 (Wiersholm is Cal's other freshman besides Alsola)
6. Viller Moeller (Cal) def. #36 Broadus (Pepp) 6-1, 6-3 (poor result from Savannah Broadus there)
The Pac-12 race this year will be an absolute slobberknocker. Four teams that look like they make a deep run--us, Cal, USC, and UCLA. With Pepperdine, that's five California teams that no one will be eager to play at NCAAs.
1. Ma
2. Yepifanova
3. Gordon
4. Blake
5. Xu
6. Geller
-OR-
1. Ma
2. Yepifanova
3. Blake
4. Xu
5. Geller
6. Houghton/Choy
We're far stronger at 1-2 than we were last year. Yepifanova is going to have a significantly higher winning percentage at that line than Arbuthnott did, and as good as she was, Gordon was far from an automatic win. Gordon went 10-7 at the top line last year, and I'd be willing to bet a modest sum that Ma beats that percentage. Gordon at 3, though? That's darn near automatic, except for when we play teams like UNC that have a group of 3-4 players that all could plausibly play 1 for them. Blake at 4 is similarly automatic, Xu would clean up at 5, and Geller would make a mockery of 6. That's the kind of depth that wins you national championships.
But let's look at what we do have. Blake at 3 is still pretty deadly (she lost one match at #3 last year, to Pachkaleva of Pepperdine, who is currently ranked #18 in the country after a stellar fall season). At #2 last year, she beat now-#1-in-the-whole-country Eryn Cayetano of USC in three sets, lost to UCLA super-senior Jada Hart, and took top 10 player Jessica Failla of Pepperdine to three sets at NCAAs. I would certainly enjoy the luxury of playing her at #4, but even at #3 she'll be heavily favored against most of her opponents. Xu at 4 will be favored against most, and if she plays like she can, she could become just as automatic at 4 as I expect Blake will be at 3. Geller at 5 should be near-automatic if that's where she lands. And whether it's Choy or Houghton at 6, I would frankly expect them to win every single time out.
We're still deeper than nearly anyone in the country. Maybe we're closer to "incredibly impressive depth" on the dial now, when we would've been at "ludicrous depth" before, but it's still going to be hard for most teams to match up with us.
FYI, #9 Cal knocked off #2 Pepperdine 4-3 in Malibu over the weekend. Pachkaleva didn't play for Pepperdine (unclear why), but after Pepperdine won doubles handily, here's how singles went:
1. #31 Fukuda (Pepp) def. Giavara (Cal) 6-1, 5-7, 7-5
2. #10 Zaar (Pepp) def. #108 Ivanov (Cal) 6-2, 6-2
3. #110 Alsola (Cal) def. #30 Flores (Pepp) 6-3, 7-6
4. Rosenqvist (Cal) def. #93 Tjen (Pepp) 6-2, 6-3 (surprisingly poor showing from the preseason #3 player in the country in Tjen)
5. Wiersholm (Cal) def. Redelijk (Pepp) 7-5, 7-5 (Wiersholm is Cal's other freshman besides Alsola)
6. Viller Moeller (Cal) def. #36 Broadus (Pepp) 6-1, 6-3 (poor result from Savannah Broadus there)
The Pac-12 race this year will be an absolute slobberknocker. Four teams that look like they make a deep run--us, Cal, USC, and UCLA. With Pepperdine, that's five California teams that no one will be eager to play at NCAAs.