03-09-2022, 09:38 AM
(03-07-2022, 07:11 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: ColoradoTree, with different results coming out of our two recent marquee matchups, a 5-2 win against defending champions Texas and a 1-4 loss to Pepperdine, has your assessment of the team change much? Are you more or less confident about our chances this season? Or has it not really moved the needle too much?
Hmmm. Great question. I still think the general sense of "young team, never know, but has the talent to win it all if they put it all together" is right. We've played three really good teams so far this year and gone 1-2, with the win at home and the two losses on the road. How we've won/lost those matches can tell us useful info:
Doubles:
Overall, we won a tight doubles point at UVA, but got smoked vs. Texas and at Pepperdine.
1. Blake/Ma won 7-6 at UVA, led 5-3 vs. UT when the point was clinched, and trailed 2-5 at Pepperdine
2. Yepifanova/Xu lost 7-5 at UVA, lost 6-2 vs. UT, and lost 6-3 at Pepperdine.
3. Geller/Madurawe won 7-5 at UVA, lost 6-1 vs. UT, and lost 6-3 at Pepperdine.
So, we have a legit #1 pairing in Blake/Ma that can win us some matches, but we need better play from the other two spots if we're going to get doubles points against better teams.
Singles:
1. Ma lost 2-6, 7-6, 4-6 to defending national singles champion Emma Navarro, beat #4 Peyton Stearns 7-6, 2-6, 6-2, and beat #23 Taisiya Pachkaleva 6-2, 6-2.
2. Yepifanova lost to #90 Elaine Chervinsky 1-6, 6-3, 5-7 in a match where she was up a break late in the third, she beat #40 Kylie Collins 2-6, 7-6, 6-4, and she lost to #12 Lisa Zaar 2-6, 4-6.
3. Blake lost to #29 Natasha Subhash 6-7, 1-6, she beat Charlotte Chavatipon 6-1, 4-6, 6-4, and she lost to #88 Janice Tjen 5-7, 1-6. A worrying habit of close first sets, but when she loses them, the air goes out of her tires.
4. Geller lost to UVA's Munera 2-6, 6-4, 1-6 in an unacceptable loss; Houghton replaced her vs. Texas and lost to Zeynalova 3-6, 4-6, and she looked destined for a third set vs. Pepperdine, "leading" 6-4, 2-5.
5. Xu rolled over Amber O'Dell 6-3, 6-2, she took care of Ovrootsky 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, and she was locked in a close one with #45 Victoria Flores, having dropped the first in a tiebreaker but leading the second up a break at 2-1.
6. Choy struggled but won over UVA 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, she steamrolled #83 Malaika Rapolu 6-2, 6-0, and she got steamrolled herself by Anastasia Iamachkine, 2-6, 1-6.
So, the lessons? Ma is an ace, and she has a chance to win every single match she plays, no matter how good the opponent is. Yepifanova has struggled to finish, and that cost us big-time against UVA. Hopefully she learns from that and finishes better like she did against Texas. She showed a little more fight in the second set against Pepperdine, but it just wasn't enough. Blake fought hard but faded badly in the second two out of these three, so that's worrying. She did show some nice finishing and fight against Texas, but she had that 6-1 first set already banked. The #4 line is clearly a weak spot for us, and I wouldn't be surprised if Xu overtakes Houghton before long, but Houghton was a rare bright spot against Pepperdine, so if she's taking time to grow into the role but finally starting to become the player I expected her to be out of high school (the #2 recruit nationally), then I want her playing, and maybe Lele sticking with her at #4 gives her the confidence she needs. (No idea what happened to Geller's form.) At 5, Xu has been everything we've needed, and I'm excited for her future. At 6, Choy has been far more uneven than I would've expected for someone who played very well last year, mostly at #4, where she almost beat Lisa Zaar (the player who just handled Yepifanova) twice, the first time losing in a third-set tiebreaker that would've won us the match, and she was just starting her third set in NCAAs when Pepperdine clinched the match.
We need to do better, no question. We're not playing well enough right now. But more than maybe every other team in the country, this team grows a ton from beginning to end. A few years back, we lost 7-0 to Vanderbilt in Nashville early in the season and later beat them 4-3 in the national championship match. Lele maximizes her time with these players and gets more improvement than other coaches do, so I certainly expect us to be better come NCAAs.
Ma has been every bit who we thought she'd be, and she seems locked in. Yepifanova, Blake, and Geller haven't yet. Xu has been promising, but Choy has struggled, even dropping that match to Oregon in a shock. I'd be curious to see what our lineup looks like in a couple weeks at home to Colorado and Utah. Those matches shouldn't be overly competitive (though Utah will be closer for sure), so if Lele wants to make a lineup change before UCSB and the L.A. schools come to town the following week, the CU/Utah matches are the time to do it.
