[Farm93]

In both sports a new coach would need at least 3 or 4 years to understand how to alter their style to likely Stanford admits while also learning how to recruit in that very small pool.   NIL and the transfer portal mean any new coach will really struggle for their first few years on campus.

And in both revenue sports should a Stanford coach finish in the top third of the conference, that coach will leave if they don't have some affinity (Born in SF Bay Area, attended Stanford, child is on team, etc.).  


However, as I have said for 18 months.   The uniquely stringent COVID protocols at Stanford and in Santa Clara County will give every Stanford coach a pass for everything that happened during COVID.    While I really doubt Haase will do better post-COVID protocols I always believed he would stay after this season because COVID protocols impacted a lot of aspects of coaching at Stanford. 

FWIW - For those thinking Shaw needs to go.   I believe COVID gives him cover too.

I think Haase gets the 2022-2023 to show what he can do with his roster in a year without significant COVID-19 protocols impacting the team, the sport and/or the campus.

Shaw only has 1 non-COVID bad year, and 4 Pac-12 COY great years, so if I am reading the Muir/COVID situation correctly Coach Shaw would need at least 2 sub-500 years AFTER COVID to be in the place Haase is in now.   

For those thinking...if my read is even close Stanford should fire Muir.   Muir is also likely safe during this COVID protocol era.   Potentially he is asked to leave 12-14 months from now.   But a new AD, even if one is announced soon after Muir's departure, would probably be very reluctant to fire a basketball or football coach until they understand what type of person is likely to succeed at Stanford given the admissions requirement and the new complexities of the transfer portal and NIL.   So if Haase and Shaw are unsuccessful going forward their tenure at Stanford is likely extended further in any scenario where Muir leaves while they are struggling on the field.

My guess -
Haase gets fired by Muir in March 2023.
Muir resigns, retires or is fired by 2025.
And Shaw stays at least through year 2 of the NEXT AD's tenure.

[Farm93]

In both sports a new coach would need at least 3 or 4 years to understand how to alter their style to likely Stanford admits while also learning how to recruit in that very small pool.   NIL and the transfer portal mean any new coach will really struggle for their first few years on campus.

And in both revenue sports should a Stanford coach finish in the top third of the conference, that coach will leave if they don't have some affinity (Born in SF Bay Area, attended Stanford, child is on team, etc.).  


However, as I have said for 18 months.   The uniquely stringent COVID protocols at Stanford and in Santa Clara County will give every Stanford coach a pass for everything that happened during COVID.    While I really doubt Haase will do better post-COVID protocols I always believed he would stay after this season because COVID protocols impacted a lot of aspects of coaching at Stanford. 

FWIW - For those thinking Shaw needs to go.   I believe COVID gives him cover too.

I think Haase gets the 2022-2023 to show what he can do with his roster in a year without significant COVID-19 protocols impacting the team, the sport and/or the campus.

Shaw only has 1 non-COVID bad year, and 4 Pac-12 COY great years, so if I am reading the Muir/COVID situation correctly Coach Shaw would need at least 2 sub-500 years AFTER COVID to be in the place Haase is in now.   

For those thinking...if my read is even close Stanford should fire Muir.   Muir is also likely safe during this COVID protocol era.   Potentially he is asked to leave 12-14 months from now.   But a new AD, even if one is announced soon after Muir's departure, would probably be very reluctant to fire a basketball or football coach until they understand what type of person is likely to succeed at Stanford given the admissions requirement and the new complexities of the transfer portal and NIL.   So if Haase and Shaw are unsuccessful going forward their tenure at Stanford is likely extended further in any scenario where Muir leaves while they are struggling on the field.

My guess -
Haase gets fired by Muir in March 2023.
Muir resigns, retires or is fired by 2025.
And Shaw stays at least through year 2 of the NEXT AD's tenure.