[DC 86]

Bottom line, the Giants have made a smart business decision to operate with a mid-market payroll - they can still contend for a wild card while maximizing profits. But from the standpoint of maximizing the number of games won or maximizing the chances of winning the division there's no rational argument for not signing better players that were available.

My assumption is the following, speaking in the presumed voice of Giants ownership: "Unfortunately we're in the same division as the Dodgers. In order to compete with them we would need to spend $100 million more per year. With the addition of another wild card we can maintain a mid-market payroll, reach the playoffs more often than not, and then try to get hot/lucky the way we did in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Fans will come out either way and sponsors will sign up either way. It doesn't make sense to almost double our payroll for a 45% chance of winning the division when we can pocket the profit and still have a good chance to reach the playoffs. If we were in the NL central spending an additional $30 million per year probably makes us the favorite to win the division, but in the west we still would be way behind the Dodgers on talent. So why spend the money to win six or seven more games and still face an enormous gap vis a vis LA."

I will rebut your devil's advocate rebuttal :)

Explain the Padres. The Giants are in a much larger market than San Diego and are worth a lot more than the Padres as well. Yet the Padres are also outspending the Giants, and also above the tax threshold, at $214M in 2022.

I can justify not spending into the tax THIS season, as it is a bit of a transition year for the Giants. They need to see what their prospects can do over this full minor league season - even if that means trading some - as they plan for the "Post-Brandons" era. 

There is one other devil's advocate position to take. The Braves were 88-74 and won the World Series with a $153M payroll that was #11 in MLB in 2021. The Braves did win their division, but we all know it's not that difficult to win World Series as a Wild Card. The Giants are at $143M as of now for 2022, and they can add some big contracts in trade market as well.

I'm not sure I understand your point about the Padres. I wasn't defending the Giants position, merely articulating what I think the Giants ownership's thought process and strategy is. Over the last few years the Padres have tried to energize a previously moribund fan base by investing in players, which is not a problem that SF faced. In some ways the Giants faithful fan base is a deterrent to more aggressive spending since revenue is fairly inelastic compared to other franchises. Btw the tax threshold this year is $230 million so the Padres are still comfortably below it.

The Braves success goes to my point, especially with three wild cards per league starting this year. Why should a team invest in building a 100-win team when it can put together an 85-win team for substantially less cost and still have a chance at winning it all. Even if the team misses the playoffs it will maintain fan interest as long as it's in contention into September, as Giants articulated earlier.

With the exception of Ramos the Giants best prospects played in A-ball last year, it's not as if they're on the cusp of reaching the majors, so 2022 is not a transition year, it's the beginning of a transition period, unless reinforcements aren't brought in to fill the gap the team will stagnate. The Giants will likely be active at the trade deadline to some degree (as with Bryant last year) but those rentals cost prospects, while free agents only cost money. In any case, one doesn't preclude the other.

[DC 86]

Bottom line, the Giants have made a smart business decision to operate with a mid-market payroll - they can still contend for a wild card while maximizing profits. But from the standpoint of maximizing the number of games won or maximizing the chances of winning the division there's no rational argument for not signing better players that were available.

My assumption is the following, speaking in the presumed voice of Giants ownership: "Unfortunately we're in the same division as the Dodgers. In order to compete with them we would need to spend $100 million more per year. With the addition of another wild card we can maintain a mid-market payroll, reach the playoffs more often than not, and then try to get hot/lucky the way we did in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Fans will come out either way and sponsors will sign up either way. It doesn't make sense to almost double our payroll for a 45% chance of winning the division when we can pocket the profit and still have a good chance to reach the playoffs. If we were in the NL central spending an additional $30 million per year probably makes us the favorite to win the division, but in the west we still would be way behind the Dodgers on talent. So why spend the money to win six or seven more games and still face an enormous gap vis a vis LA."

I will rebut your devil's advocate rebuttal :)

Explain the Padres. The Giants are in a much larger market than San Diego and are worth a lot more than the Padres as well. Yet the Padres are also outspending the Giants, and also above the tax threshold, at $214M in 2022.

I can justify not spending into the tax THIS season, as it is a bit of a transition year for the Giants. They need to see what their prospects can do over this full minor league season - even if that means trading some - as they plan for the "Post-Brandons" era. 

There is one other devil's advocate position to take. The Braves were 88-74 and won the World Series with a $153M payroll that was #11 in MLB in 2021. The Braves did win their division, but we all know it's not that difficult to win World Series as a Wild Card. The Giants are at $143M as of now for 2022, and they can add some big contracts in trade market as well.

I'm not sure I understand your point about the Padres. I wasn't defending the Giants position, merely articulating what I think the Giants ownership's thought process and strategy is. Over the last few years the Padres have tried to energize a previously moribund fan base by investing in players, which is not a problem that SF faced. In some ways the Giants faithful fan base is a deterrent to more aggressive spending since revenue is fairly inelastic compared to other franchises. Btw the tax threshold this year is $230 million so the Padres are still comfortably below it.

The Braves success goes to my point, especially with three wild cards per league starting this year. Why should a team invest in building a 100-win team when it can put together an 85-win team for substantially less cost and still have a chance at winning it all. Even if the team misses the playoffs it will maintain fan interest as long as it's in contention into September, as Giants articulated earlier.

With the exception of Ramos the Giants best prospects played in A-ball last year, it's not as if they're on the cusp of reaching the majors, so 2022 is not a transition year, it's the beginning of a transition period, unless reinforcements aren't brought in to fill the gap the team will stagnate. The Giants will likely be active at the trade deadline to some degree (as with Bryant last year) but those rentals cost prospects, while free agents only cost money. In any case, one doesn't preclude the other.