04-15-2022, 01:05 PM
(04-15-2022, 12:32 PM)winflop Wrote: Offense will not be the problem this year, just like last year. Defense will once again be undersized and thin.
Offense was a problem last year. We were 113th in scoring offense, 122nd in total offense, 101st in yards per play, 126th in rushing offense, 117th in yards per carry, 82nd in passing offense, 82nd in passer rating, 94th in yards per passing attempt, and 82nd in Offensive FEI (my favorite stat as the way Shaw coaches makes conventional stats underrate our offense and overrate our defense). Offense, like defense, was an enormous problem last year. If your point is that defense has tended to be more of a problem than offense in recent years, I absolutely agree. But Stanford's offense last year was horrendous. Not even top 80 in the nation.
Aside from the weird pandemic-shortened season in which stats are less reliable and certainly foolhardy to compare across conferences, we haven't had a top 60 offense since 2018. In terms of scoring offense, it's been since 2017. Stanford having offensive talent is not the same thing as offense not being a problem. Not under this coaching staff.
I am inclined to think that having McKee + a veteran OL + arguably the best and certainly top 2-3 skill position groups in the conference will produce at least a solid offense. But, especially with the RB situation and the coaching staff's track record, I don't know if the offense will actually be good. Good offenses in today's college football score 31/32 points per game and you're not really a notable offense unless you're averaging 35+. Is that what we're going to see? In the last six seasons (many of which had enviable NFL talent on offense: McCaffrey, Schultz, Smith, Love, Arcega-Whiteside, Parkinson, Fehoko, Dalman, Mills, Little), the single best scoring offense we've had was 32.4 points per game. Good but not great. I think that's Shaw's ceiling. We'll probably be in the 25-40 range of offenses nationally.
One can say that's not a "problem" but it's nowhere near good enough with the level of defense Stanford puts out there. An offense in the 30s and a defense in, say, the 90s is not a good or relevant team. Ultimately, you're absolutely right to focus more on the defense but we do need a lot out of the offense.
